Putin's defeat in Ukraine: A path to democratic Russia

Vladimir Putin cannot win the war in Ukraine because his defeat is the only chance to build a new, democratic Russia. The Russian opposition and the West cannot waste this opportunity again as they did in the '90s, believes Russian oppositionist Vladimir Kara-Murza, recently released from prison.

Vladimir Putin must not be allowed to win the war in Ukraine. Moreover, he must not be allowed to come out of it unscathed. Because this man has been in power for 25 years, and since he came to power, he has brought death, blood, suffering, pain, murder, and war. That's just how he is. He will never change. And suppose he is allowed to come out of this war unscathed, in a year or two. In that case, we will be talking about another invasion, another aggression, another crime committed by his regime, said Kara-Murza on Friday at a press conference at the London think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

Kara-Murza, who was released at the beginning of August as part of a prisoner exchange between Russia and the West, emphasized that the only strategic way out of the current crisis is the emergence of a new Russia. It should have a government that respects the rights and freedoms of its citizens, adheres to civilized norms of international behaviour, and is legally and democratically elected.

He reminded us that both the Romanov empire and the Soviet regime fell suddenly and unexpectedly. Kara-Murza warned that the same can be expected in the foreseeable future with Putinism. Therefore, as he emphasized, both the Russian opposition and the West should be prepared for such a scenario in order not to waste the chance for Russia's democratization.

According to Kara-Murza, a key element of this process will be the "process of truth and reconciliation in Russian society". All countries that have successfully transitioned from authoritarianism to democracy have undergone a process of moral reckoning, public reconciliation, and accountability for crimes committed by regimes. Archives were opened, and trials were held for those responsible for crimes committed against other nations or within their own countries. We never had this in Russia in the '90s, and in my opinion, this is the main reason for everything that has happened since 1999, when Putin came to power - emphasized Kara-Murza.

The oppositionists also pointed out the need to prepare a roadmap for the future democratic reintegration of Russia with Europe and the international order based on principles. This is not only in our interest but primarily in the interest of Ukraine because there will be no stable, peaceful, and secure Ukraine if there is no peaceful and democratic Russia as long as a murderous and aggressive dictatorship reigns in the Kremlin - he added.

Kara-Murza stressed that the democratization process in Russia must be authentic, and the West must not be deceived again by "facade democratization". I understand the emotions, but we cannot base long-term strategic policy on emotions. He argued that it must be rational, intellectual, and guided by the real interests of Europe, the world, and humanity.

Kara-Murza also addressed concerns that a power change after Putin could bring an even worse regime. What could be worse than a mad dictator with a nuclear bomb who is destroying a peaceful country in the middle of Europe, who imprisons hundreds of people and kills his political opponents? Could there really be anything worse? - he asked.

He emphasized that the key goal is to create a parliamentary system instead of a presidential system in Russia. The system is bad. And our goal as the Russian democratic opposition is not to replace a bad czar with a good czar. There is no such thing as a good czar, he explained, adding that Russia must follow a path of democratization similar to that of Italy, Germany, Spain, or Latin American countries.

Despite the fact that the democratic transformation of Russia will not be easy or quick, Kara-Murza is convinced that the Russian people are capable of overcoming the "trauma inflicted on our society by decades of Soviet rule, and now by a quarter century of Putinism".

Kara-Murza concluded by expressing hope that Vladimir Putin will face trial for his crimes. I want the people who lost their families and relatives in Ukraine to see his face when he sits in the defendant's chair, like Slobodan Milosevic years ago - he stressed.