Russian tank losses in Ukraine escalate: A shift in war dynamics

The Russian defence industry has amazed the world with its resilience to sanctions and mobilization capabilities. However, it appears that the momentum of the Russian defence sector is starting to wane. According to the latest data, Russians are losing tanks at a rate that makes it impossible to replace the losses.

An analysis of Russian losses in Ukraine was presented by Defence 24, referring both to data provided by the Ukrainian side (due to propaganda actions, their credibility is questionable) and those offered by independent analytical centers.

Russian tank losses have noticeably, systematically, and rapidly increased over the last few months, supported by evidence such as drone footage. This is partly due to the intensity of the fighting and a generational change in the equipment used.

While in the early months of the attack on Ukraine, Russia mainly utilized new tanks from front-line units, as losses mounted, they began to dig deeper into their stockpiles.

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Not only older versions of the currently used T-72 or T-80 are reaching the front lines, but also the T-64, T-62, and even wholly archaic T-55s/54s.

The statistics show an increasing share of old models in the overall number of tanks in combat. Older machines are more easily destroyed, which, combined with more intense fighting, resulted in an average of 390 tanks lost per month between March and May 2024 – 70% more than in the first two years of the war.

Russian problems are also affected by a new Ukrainian tactic, carefully destroying damaged or abandoned Russian vehicles with repeated FPV drone attacks, preventing their later towing and repair.

Even more interesting is the data from the early days of June, when Russians lost at least 37 tanks within the first two days of the month (these are losses documented by video and photo evidence, not just reported), equivalent to the entire monthly production.

Although information that Russia might run out of tanks has been repeated regularly since the beginning of the conflict – and so far has proved overly optimistic – new data give hope that the Russian tank reserves and production are insufficient relative to the losses sustained.

At the current pace, this means that by 2025, the Russian army will start running out of tanks. Time will tell if this prediction proves more accurate than previous ones.