Trump's historic conviction: Impact on 2024 election uncertain

Joe Biden and Donald Trump target the same narrow electorate of undecided voters. CNBC writes that the former U.S. president's conviction could matter to them. However, Thursday's poll on this topic is quite surprising.

On Thursday, a grand jury in Manhattan's state court, New York, found Trump guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records. The case is related to Trump and his associates hiding payments for the silence of adult film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election campaign.

This is the first such verdict in U.S. history. On July 11, the court will decide on the sentence, determining what punishment the former U.S. president will face.

What consequences could this have for the U.S. elections on November 5?

"Donald Trump is now the first former U.S. president convicted in a criminal trial, but it is unclear whether this situation will nullify or even weaken his attempt to unseat Joe Biden. Recent polls suggest that a conviction may influence how key voter groups perceive Trump, the assumed Republican presidential candidate," points out the American station CNBC.

However, according to a poll released Thursday morning, even before the jury's decision was known, a small portion of non-Democratic voters stated that they would not be inclined to vote for Trump after this verdict.

This may not be enough to change the trajectory of the presidential race, the station comments.

It refers to an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll with registered independent voters on Thursday morning.

• Nearly three-quarters of independent voters stated that Trump's conviction would not affect their voting decision.
• Only 11% of respondents indicated that after the conviction, they would be less likely to support Trump in the November elections.
• And 15% stated that the conviction would make them more likely to support him.

Meanwhile, among Republicans, 25% said they would be more inclined to vote for Trump if he is found guilty in the Stormy Daniels case. And only 10% admitted that they would be less inclined to vote for the former president.

These responses reflect the results of a recent Quinnipiac University poll, in which only 6% of Trump voters stated they would be less likely to vote for him if he were convicted. At the same time, nearly a quarter said they would be more likely to vote for him.