Putin's dilemma: Sending war‑hardened convicts to Africa
African countries are worried that after the war in Ukraine, Russia will bolster its mercenary forces with criminals, specifically those initially deployed to the Ukrainian front. Russian mercenaries have been accused of war crimes, notably in Libya and Mali. Observers are concerned that sending convicts to Africa will lead to an increase in violence.
There is speculation that Vladimir Putin might send former prisoners to Africa to avoid their return to Russia.
Prof. Amadou Diouf from Cheikh Anta Diop University in Dakar highlights that Russia will face a dilemma concerning the fate of the former prisoners who fought in Ukraine.
- Their return is feared by residents of the villages and cities they come from - Diouf told the Polish Press Agency. These fears arise from the numerous crimes committed by these individuals.
According to the Senegalese political scientist, it might be tempting for Putin to send these criminals to Africa, where they would bolster existing mercenary units from the former Wagner Group and other private formations that are already largely composed of bandits.
According to a report by Fahad Mirza from the Center for Human Rights Research, the majority of the Wagner Group forces in Ukraine were convicts. At the peak of operations in 2023, their number reached 50,000 individuals. Convicts and repeat offenders were also incorporated into mercenary groups stationed in Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali, Niger, the Central African Republic, and Mozambique.
Mirza predicts that Russian mercenary groups in Africa could evolve into terrorist organizations.
Russian mercenaries have been accused of war crimes in Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic. Humanitarian organizations and the U.S. State Department accuse them of deliberately killing civilians. The presence of criminals among the mercenaries raises concerns about further escalations of violence.
The BBC report revealed that Russia has enacted laws allowing prisoners to choose war over court. After the conflict in Ukraine concludes, Russia might deploy these individuals to Africa to prevent their return home. This potential scenario is worrying African communities.
- Months spent waging war haven't rehabilitated anyone. Criminals supposedly rehabilitated by the system have become even greater criminals - Prof. Amadou Diouf noted.
