Possible successors weigh heavily as Pope Francis battles illness

The 88-year-old Franciszek was admitted to the Gemelli hospital in Rome on February 14th after experiencing breathing difficulties for several days. He was diagnosed with bilateral pneumonia. Tests also revealed mild initial kidney failure, which "is under control."

The Vatican has been reporting for several days that the Pope's condition is "critical," although he is conscious and aware. The threat to Franciszek's health is not yet over.

Franciszek, who has been the head of the Catholic Church since March 2013, has experienced recurring health problems for the past two years. In his youth, he contracted pleurisy, and part of one lung was removed, making him particularly susceptible to lung infections.

The condition of Franciszek and his age have only intensified speculation about who could succeed him. Many favourites appear in the media, but only a few have a real chance of becoming the 267th successor of St. Peter.

In recent days, the media has been buzzing with the name Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, Archbishop of Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo. This 65-year-old cleric was appointed a cardinal by Franciszek in 2019 and has since established a strong position within the Church.

He is considered the informal leader of the African Church. He gained international fame for his open criticism of the Vatican document "Fiducia supplicans," which, under certain conditions, allowed the blessing of homosexual couples. Besungu wrote that such "blessings cannot be given in Africa without causing a scandal."

His African origin could be a factor in his favour as the Church is thriving there. Additionally, Besungu is a strong advocate of synods and dialogue within the Church, focuses that Franciszek has emphasized in recent years.

Against the Archbishop of Kinshasa is his age—he is 65, which is relatively young by cardinal college standards. Cardinals tend to elect older Popes so that their pontificates do not last too long. His election would certainly signal a conservative shift in the Church and, at least partially, a return to the lines of John Paul II. His disadvantage might be that lately, there has been too much attention around him. A well-known Vatican saying goes: 'He who enters the conclave as Pope leaves as a cardinal.'

Another African candidate mentioned in the speculations is Guinean cleric, Cardinal Robert Sarah, the retired prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments. The 79-year-old bishop (turning 80 in June) is considered one of the most well-known conservatives in the Church. His books sell worldwide in the thousands.

In his views, Cardinal Sarah is a staunch opponent of the ordination of women, the blessing of homosexual couples, the abolition of priestly celibacy, and giving communion to those in subsequent unions. In the conclave, his strong views may be an asset, but also a disadvantage—it's unlikely that conservatives could organize broad support for such a distinctive candidate.

The Italians will form a very strong faction in the conclave. Among the electors are as many as 18 clerics from this country. It's rather certain that after a 47-year hiatus, they will want to place one of their own in the Papal office.

Among them, the most well-known name appears to be Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna, head of the Italian episcopate since last year. It was he whom Franciszek entrusted with the mission of peace mediation between Ukraine and Russia.

Additionally, Zuppi is a member of the Italian community of Sant'Egidio, which focuses on ecumenism and helping the poor. This group, whose members have recently begun to have rapid careers in the Vatican, is influencing more and more matters. Its founder is Italian historian Andrea Riccardi.

Zuppi's election would signify a continuation of Franciszek's line in a somewhat softened form, acceptable to many cardinals in the conclave.

Among other Italian candidates mentioned is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the current Vatican Secretary of State. He is a diplomat and bureaucrat who enjoys great trust from Franciszek. Parolin is calm, more conservative than Franciszek, and would be a moderate continuation of his line. His definitive flaw is his lack of substantial cardinal experience, as he spent most of his life in the Vatican working in various diplomatic levels.

A "middle" candidate among the Italians might be Cardinal Fernando Filoni, the grand master of a knightly order. This hierarch also spent most of his life in Vatican diplomacy and has extensive experience gathered from various global talks. If the cardinals wanted to vote "to wait and see," he seems like an ideal candidate. At 79, he is not controversial. However, the downside might be that he does not have much experience in diocesan management and pastoral work.

The topic of a Pope from Asia is appearing more often in media speculation. The Church on this continent is growing very dynamically, which increases the significance of hierarchs from this part of the world. In his cardinal appointments, Franciszek did not overlook this direction—21 cardinals from this continent have the right to elect a Pope.

Among them, the most prominent name is Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle from the Philippines, Vatican prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization. This 68-year-old was already mentioned among the favourites at the last conclave. He is known for his pastoral zeal, good rapport with the faithful, and spontaneity. After Franciszek's election, he had a brilliant career in the Vatican, becoming the prefect of an important dicastery.

He is well-educated, fluent in several languages, and easily builds rapport. He is considered more of a liberal but tries to maintain balance in his statements. However, the matter of Caritas Internationalis, which he became head of in 2015, casts a shadow over his candidacy. He didn't see through his second term, as he was suddenly dismissed by Franciszek in 2022. There were loud talks in the Vatican about unclear financial operations within this organization.

A more moderate candidate from this part of the world is the Metropolitan of Colombo, Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith of Sri Lanka. A polyglot with broad experience as a bishop, he also navigates the Vatican structures and the diplomatic world well.

In the most contentious church topics, he speaks rather conservatively. He is also a loyal bishop to Franciszek, sharing a concern for the poorest. He is a candidate whose election wouldn't raise major controversies.

Another standout among Asian hierarchs is Cardinal Charles Maung Bo, Archbishop of Myanmar. A charismatic leader who has guided the local Church through years of persecution. He is considered more of an orthodox conservative. His views arise more from the environment he operates in. He is one of the most influential Asian hierarchs. His weak side might be his unfamiliarity with Vatican realities, as he spent his entire life in Asia.

South American cardinals could also have a significant influence on the selection. There are as many as 17 in the college, most of whom were nominated by Pope Franciszek. Here, Uruguayan Cardinal Daniel Fernando Sturla from Montevideo and Argentine Cardinal Viktor Manuel Fernandez, prefect of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith, stand out.

Both are relatively young (66 and 63 years old), but they have almost nothing in common. Cardinal Sturla is more of a conservative, under the tutelage of Pope Benedict XVI. He has a clear vision of what the Church should look like. He is not a fan of synodality, emphasizing a focus on the poor, but according to him, "the Church cannot just be a charitable organization."

Cardinal Fernandez is his opposite. He is one of the Pope's closest associates and a radical implementer of Franciszek's vision. After becoming Pope, he quickly promoted Fernandez, sparking wide discussions. His statements provoke controversy in conservative circles, sometimes questioning orthodox Church teachings. His election would mean a radical continuation of Franciszek's line.

A strong group in the conclave traditionally consists of European cardinals, although they have lost significance in recent years. Among them, a few names stand out. Protege of Franciszek and his "favourite" is Luxembourgish Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich, a Jesuit. He was chosen to lead the synod on synodality. His election would continue Franciszek's line, and he doesn't seem to have a great chance. However, he might play an essential role in the voting by shaping potential candidates.

Between the extreme candidates, a cardinal emerges who could reconcile all factions — Hungarian Peter Erdo, Metropolitan of Budapest. Talking about him as a potential Pope is nothing new. His name was already mentioned before the previous conclave. Erdo is considered a conservative but could be accepted by a majority of the College of Cardinals as a compromise candidate. Fluent in Hungarian, Latin, Italian, French, and English, he is well-known among the cardinals, and his election would represent a commitment to Church stability and tranquility.

Another name that appears among potential candidates is Swedish Cardinal Anders Arborelius. Raised as a Lutheran, he only took baptism at age 20. He is a rather conservative adherent of strict Church doctrines. When asked if he was ready to become Pope, he quipped: "It's very unrealistic, but possible."

A somewhat more liberal choice would be French Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, Metropolitan of Marseille. Known for his gentleness and excellent connection with the faithful, he strives in his actions to seek compromise, which gains him many supporters. However, he might be "unelectable" due to his relatively young age (66).

If the cardinals were looking for a new Pope who would be a continuation of Franciszek's line, they should focus on the Portuguese from Madeira, Cardinal Jose Tolentino de Mendonca, prefect of the Dicastery for Culture and Communication. He's been mentioned among the favourites for some time now. His election would likely mean a long pontificate, since Mendonca is 60 years old.