Ukrainian forces outmaneuver Russia in surprise Kursk offensive

According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Ukrainian military exploited the situation for an offensive in the Kursk region despite Russia knowing and preparing for the Ukrainian Armed Forces' operation for months.

The Ukrainian military managed to surprise Russia with its offensive in the Kursk region, even though the Russians were aware of the plans and had been preparing for the Ukrainian operation for several months, reports the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"According to reports, Russian authorities had known for months about the threat of a future Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, but did not take appropriate actions to eliminate such a threat," the American think tank assesses in its analysis on Saturday.

"The Guardian" reports, citing documents from the Russian government and military seized by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, that Russian troops stationed in the region repeatedly warned their command about the possibility of a Ukrainian offensive by the end of 2023.

The documents indicate that the local military command issued orders for additional soldier training, construction of new fortifications, and preparation of trenches, as well as military equipment in preparation for the upcoming Ukrainian operation.

One of the documents indicated that as of June 2024, Russian military units stationed along the border had only 60-70% of the anticipated troop strength, consisting mostly of poorly trained reservists.

"It appears that Russian authorities have not made significant efforts to increase the readiness of military units in the Kursk region nor to build additional fortifications along the border. These requests were ignored due to miscalculations regarding Ukraine's ability to penetrate deeper into the Kursk region," writes ISW.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War emphasize that the documents confirm that Ukrainian forces surprised the Russians during the invasion of the Kursk region. "Although Russian forces were likely aware of various points along the border where Ukraine could start an offensive, the Ukrainian forces exploited Russian uncertainty and achieved operational surprise," the think tank notes.

"The Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region shows that surprise is still possible even on a partially transparent battlefield, where the enemy can observe the concentration of forces but is unable to reliably recognize the operational intentions and capabilities of the opponent," summarize the experts.