Putin's focus on Kaliningrad raises fears of Baltic aggression

During a meeting between Vladimir Putin and the recently elected heads of Russia's federal units, disturbing words were spoken. The dictator focused attention on the Kaliningrad Oblast. Experts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) view this as a forecast of future aggression against the Baltic states.

Under the guise of defending the Kaliningrad Oblast, the Kremlin may undertake future actions threatening its neighbours. Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania may be in the crosshairs.

American experts from the Institute for the Study of War carefully analyze Vladimir Putin's words. They indicate that his comments about Russian citizens’ travel to the Kaliningrad Oblast may be significant.

The Kaliningrad Oblast is a Russian federal subject located on the Baltic Sea coast. Russians travel to the Kaliningrad exclave from mainland Russia by train or car through Belarus and NATO member states Latvia and Lithuania. Poland also borders the Kaliningrad Oblast.

According to ISW, Putin's comments about "maintaining Kaliningrad's cultural and social ties to Russia" are likely directed at domestic audiences. However, under the pretense of defending the Kaliningrad Oblast, the dictator could pave the way for future Russian aggression against the Baltic states - note the centre’s analysts.

"Putin claimed during a meeting with recently elected heads of Russian federal subjects (regions) and occupied Crimea on September 19 that Kaliningrad Oblast is Russia's 'western outpost' and that Russia must strive to ensure that Kaliningrad Oblast is not only an 'outpost' or a 'fortress' on Russia's western borders but is also well integrated into Russian society and the Russian economy. Putin stated that Russia will never 'forget; about Kaliningrad Oblast and that Kaliningrad Oblast must continue to develop in accordance with Russia's social and cultural values," the authors of the report emphasize.

The dictator mentioned that Russia must address the elimination of barriers to the movement of Russian citizens between mainland Russia and the Kaliningrad Oblast. He emphasized that the exclave is "Russia's western outpost."

This is not the first time the dictator has directed his attention to an area bordering NATO. "Putin may be setting conditions for future Russian aggression against the Baltic States under the guise of defending Kaliningrad Oblast," - warn analysts from the United States.