Russia's potential ceasefire: strategy for future offensives?

"A ceasefire does not preclude Russia from resuming its offensive campaign to destroy Ukrainian statehood, and Russia would use any ceasefire to prepare for future offensive operations within Ukraine," claims the American Institute for the Study of War. Analysts emphasize, "There is no reason to assess that the Kremlin will respect any new agreement obliging Russia not to violate Ukrainian sovereignty or territorial integrity."

The ISW recalls the Russian military intervention in Crimea and Donbas in 2014, which violated many of Russia's international commitments. These commitments included respecting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, which were confirmed in 1991 when Russia recognized Ukraine as an independent state. In the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, Russia committed to not violating Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The American think tank notes that there are no grounds to assume that the Kremlin will respect the new agreement, which obligates Russia to refrain from violating Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The ISW emphasizes that a ceasefire would allow Russia to rebuild its degraded forces and further mobilize its defence and industrial base without restrictions related to urgent operational needs in Ukraine.

According to the ISW, Russia could use a ceasefire to prepare forces better suited for conducting another series of offensive operations aimed at demilitarizing and conquering Ukraine. The Kremlin might reasonably expect that a frozen front would make Western support for Ukraine less urgent and essential, enabling Russia to outpace Ukraine in preparations for future wartime actions.

On Friday, the Reuters agency, citing four Russian sources close to the Kremlin, reported that Putin is ready to halt fighting in Ukraine through a negotiated ceasefire, which would include the currently occupied Ukrainian territories.

During a small group meeting with his advisors, three informants from Putin's close circle reported that the Russian leader expressed frustration regarding negotiations with Ukraine, which are reportedly being hindered by Western countries. Putin is allegedly displeased that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky excludes him from peace talks scheduled in mid-June at a summit in Switzerland.

Four sources suggest that Putin is prepared to be content with the areas of Ukraine captured so far and halt fighting along the current front line. "Putin will say that we won, that NATO attacked us and we kept our sovereignty, that we have a land corridor to Crimea, which is true," said one of the informants.