Russian offensive in Kharkiv aims to divert Ukrainian forces, ISW reports
The strategic goal of the current limited Russian offensive operations in the north of the Kharkiv region is to divert Ukrainian forces from other front sections - assessed in the latest report by the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
An extensive ISW analysis focused on the offensive operations in the north of the Kharkiv region that the Russian army started on Friday. According to experts, these actions are currently limited and do not indicate a large-scale operation aimed at encircling and taking control of the city.
ISW reports that Russian forces probably aim at this stage to push Ukrainians away from the Belgorod region's border and bring their forces closer to Kharkiv, within artillery range.
"On Friday morning, Russian troops began offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in the north of the Kharkiv region and achieved significant tactical gains. It is likely the initial phase of the offensive with limited operational goals, but strategically, it aims to divert Ukrainian troops from other key sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine," assessed ISW.
Russians continue the offensive
The Russians conducted two limited operations near the localities of Lyptsi and one near Volchansk. As reported by the Ukrainian side, assault infantry groups supported by armored weapons were used for the attacks. At the same time, the Russians significantly intensified aerial bombings, as well as using artillery and rocket fire.
According to most sources on the Ukrainian and Russian sides, the Russians managed to capture the border villages of Strilecha, Krasne, and Pylna, and possibly - Borysivka. The Russians also moved towards Volchansk, but it is not known for certain how far.
ISW predicts that the invading forces will try to expand their tactical gains through further attacks, to push Ukrainians away and bring themselves closer to Kharkiv to a distance within artillery range.
They gathered tens of thousands of soldiers
The think tank noted, based on available footage, that the Russians engaged relatively small forces and a limited amount of equipment for attacks in the north. From previous information, it appears that in this region, the invaders gathered forces numbering between 35,000 and 50,000.
According to ISW, the current limited actions of the Russian forces do not indicate an intention of a large-scale offensive on Kharkiv, aiming to encircle and take control of the city. Although analysts allow for the possibility that these operations may be preparation for a later offensive, in their opinion, it would be "difficult" for the Russians to capture Kharkiv if they had such a plan.
ISW supposes that the reason for starting the Russian actions in this direction is "a relatively short window of opportunity" before the arrival of Western aid to Ukraine, which the Kremlin wants to maximize.
