Russian advances challenge Ukrainian hold in Kursk region
Russian units continue to advance on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region in almost all directions. According to analysts and representatives of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in the coming weeks, we may witness Ukrainians withdrawing from Russian-controlled areas.
Such conclusions have been drawn by, among others, Julian Röpke, an analyst for the German portal BILD. He pointed out that the current dynamic is such that the Russians are systematically approaching their own border and pushing the Ukrainians back. Consequently, "most likely in the coming weeks or, at the latest, months, the Ukrainians will withdraw."
Russians are pressing hard on Ukrainian positions
Röpke also points out that the equipment allowing Russians to make visible progress has become drones controlled by fiber-optic cables. Their range is estimated to be about 8 kilometres. The most important feature of such designs is that they are not susceptible to electronic warfare systems. As a result, the Russians manage to effectively destroy Ukrainian equipment.
The latest ISW report emphasizes that the Russians want to reclaim their territories before the approaching winter, during which field operations become significantly hindered.
"Intensified Russian counterattacks will likely aim to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region before bad weather conditions in the fall of 2024 and early winter of 2024/2025 start to restrict manoeuvrability on the battlefield," explains ISW.
Ukrainian and Russian equipment in the Kursk region
Both sides of the ongoing war have deployed large forces to the Kursk region, including the heaviest and most valuable armoured equipment. The Ukrainian command decided to send some of the elite brigades equipped with gear from NATO countries there. On Russian territories, one could see, among others, Challenger 2, Leopard, and Polish PT-91 Twardy tanks. Reports on social media also showed Ukrainian use of Stryker and Oncilla armoured personnel carriers, originating respectively from the USA and Poland.
Russians in the Kursk region are using, among others, T-80BWM and T-90M tanks, which are considered the most valuable in their army. Ukrainians have destroyed some of these machines. The Russians aim to avoid more such situations, especially since the forces sent to Kursk would be very useful in the Donetsk area, among other places.
"The Russian military command likely intends to quickly push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region to free combat forces for their priority offensive operations in the Donetsk region and alleviate operational pressure across the entire theatre of operations generated by the Ukrainian advance (in Russian territory)," explain analysts from ISW.
