North Korea's arms boost fuels Russia's war in Ukraine

On Thursday, October 24, the Russian State Duma, the lower house of parliament, approved a strategic partnership agreement with North Korea. This will enable the expansion of military cooperation between the two states.

Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un agreed on the agreement at a meeting that took place in June this year in Pyongyang. It raises the cooperation between the regimes to a higher level. It includes a provision that if one side is attacked and in a state of war, the other must "immediately provide military and other assistance by all available means".

The agreement is tailored to the war in Ukraine. According to the Kremlin's narrative, the Russian Federation was attacked by Ukrainians, allowing Kim to send not only weapons and ammunition to the ally but also soldiers, which is currently happening.

Up to 10,000 North Korean soldiers may be sent to the Far East regions of the Federation for "training". So far, American intelligence has confirmed that 3,000 of them are in Russia.

When the Duma ratified the treaty, Ukrainian intelligence reported that the first Korean units were deployed in the Kursk region. It is possible that if clashes between Kim Jong Un's soldiers and Ukrainians occur, it will be in the Kursk region, which the Ukrainian army entered in August.

The ratified agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang is merely a formal acknowledgment of what we have practically observed for months. According to South Korean intelligence, since 2023, North Korea has sent over 6,700 containers with artillery ammunition and ballistic missiles to Russia. Last year alone, Pyongyang delivered 3 million 152 mm shells and about half a million 122 mm shells to its ally.

Some of this armament likely comes from older ammunition stockpiles, as North Korea's current production capacity is not that large. Only now has the regime announced it will increase production, allowing for the manufacture of 2.5 to 3 million shells annually. For the Kremlin, which estimates that at current consumption it will need about 5.6 million annually, this will be significant support.

The Korean Central News Agency, KCNA, reported that "The Ministry of Defense Industry has already taken steps to maximize production by implementing a performance-based payment system to reward workers of defense industry enterprises that are recognized as key to swiftly doubling production".

The centre for heavy artillery and shell production is located in Chongjin, North Hamgyong Province. Components for chemical weapons and ammunition are manufactured in the cities of Wonsan and Hamhung, with research facilities hidden in the remote areas of Chagang Province.

The transport of Korean armament takes place via sea (between the ports of Najin and Vostochny) as well as by rail. However, both sides are discussing significant investments in railway infrastructure on the Najin-Khasan section. It is possible that a large part of this will be financed by the Kremlin.

This would significantly speed up deliveries from Korea's "arms basin" in the northern and central parts of the country.

Kim Jong Un, by helping Putin, is not doing it for an idea. In return, Russia has agreed to supply his regime with energy and food. However, this is not the main goal of the dictator. He most desires advanced technologies, including those that would support North Korea's satellite program.

Of course, Kim Jong Un would also like technologically advanced weapons, because the North Korean arms industry, partly due to international sanctions, is extremely backward. Collaboration with Russia will allow him to develop.

This is a self-sustaining cycle: Russia receives missiles, and North Koreans receive hard currency and raw materials. This increases their processing capacity, and Moscow gets more ammunition.

Collaboration with the Russian industry will allow Asians to partially bypass sanctions, especially those related to the design and construction of intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Although so far Russia has refrained from supplying nuclear and missile technology to North Korea, the risk of technological exchange in these areas cannot be ruled out.

No wonder that Kim Jong Un has become Putin's closest friend and ally. In addition to ammunition for artillery and rocket systems, anti-tank missile destroyers Bulsae-4 have also reached Russia. The system was based on a Chinese solution and mounted on a modified chassis derived from the Russian BTR-60. This raises doubts in China, which did not agree to transfer its weapon.

The rapprochement between Pyongyang and the Kremlin is being closely observed by the governments and intelligence services of China, the United States, South Korea, and Japan, though each of these countries has different reasons for concern.

Beijing fears the rise of Russian influence in North Korea. The long-term consequences of this cooperation could lead to an increase in the military capabilities of the DPRK. The consequence would be forcing Americans to an even greater military presence in the region, which may threaten Beijing's interests.

Of course, the greatest concern about the growing power of its neighbour is held by South Korea. In early October, Kim Jong Un warned that he could use nuclear weapons in potential conflicts with both it and the United States. According to the dictator, both countries are responsible for increasing hostility on the Korean Peninsula.

Kim warned: "We will unhesitatingly use all our attack capabilities against our enemies".

Changes in the North Korean constitution are also worrying. A clause was added stating that South Korea is a "hostile" country. Previously, North Korea's doctrine assumed peaceful reunification of the two countries and the introduction of communism in the South. Now the constitution explicitly identifies South Korea as a "hostile state" that must be occupied by force.

It is not excluded that Seoul may now start sending weapons directly to Ukraine, which it has so far avoided. Previously, missiles were purchased by the USA and only then delivered to the Ukrainian army.

One thing is certain: as long as the war in Ukraine continues, the military partnership between North Korea and Russia will endure, because it is extremely beneficial for both sides.