Russia's costly gamble: Ukraine war reshapes global dynamics
In an interview with the Polish Press Agency, Dr. Agnieszka Bryc from Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń stated that "Vladimir Putin has turned Russia into a rogue state, making aggression a tool of politics." The expert assessed how the war in Ukraine has influenced Russia and the world.
The war in Ukraine, which will enter its fourth year in February 2025, has brought immense costs to Moscow. The Pentagon estimated that in February of the current year, they amounted to CAD 211 billion. On November 1, the Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces indicated that over 696,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded. Dr. Bryc points out that non-ethnic Russians are the first to be sent to the front lines. Citing a report by the BBC, the expert notes that among the casualties are primarily Tuvans, Buryats, Nenets, and residents of Altai and Zabaykalsky.
At the same time, in demographic terms, the population of the Russian Federation has gained 4.5 million "new citizens," as this is the number of ballots issued by the Central Election Commission in the so-called new territories, meaning the four occupied regions of eastern Ukraine — said the expert in an interview with PAP.
The expert emphasizes that Russia is no longer perceived as the "East of the West" and now sees itself as the "North of Asia" or even an "economically diminished junior partner of China." Since 2022, the Kremlin has led to economic dependence on Beijing, transforming the country into a raw material and assembly base for Chinese industry.
There has also been a "quantization" of trade—the Chinese currency has replaced the dollar and euro in trade exchanges. By reselling its most valuable resources to China and India, Russia allows itself to be cannibalized, while Beijing or Delhi benefit from a cheap gas station, explains Dr. Bryc.
Putin still has support at home
From the Kremlin's perspective, the benefit is the "gathering of Russian lands," meaning the annexation of 18% of Ukrainian territory. If Putin manages to reach a ceasefire, he will maintain a land connection with the occupied Crimea and might even enforce formal recognition of the territorial gains.
Today, we know that Russian planners assumed as early as 2014 that by 2025, Russia would be able to destabilize Ukraine, and by 2050, even disintegrate it or lead to the "termination of the state." Putin's plans are far-reaching and will not be changed by any ceasefire — said Dr. Bryc in an interview with PAP.
Regarding social sentiments in Russia, political scientists note that citizens rationalized the aggression against their neighbours just three months after the invasion. Support for Putin's policy remains at 87%. According to Russian Field, almost half of Russians favour transitioning to peace negotiations. Interestingly, those who are for stopping the war are most often people with low incomes, not ultra patriots from pro-Kremlin circles, emphasizes Dr. Bryc.
Russia will not give up
The expert predicts that Russia will not abandon its revisionist and neo-imperial policy, militarization, and ideological support in the form of Russian conservatism. The stake is a change in the global order and the end of the so-called "American century." Russians believe in an upcoming major change, in which the "global minority," meaning the West, will be replaced by the "global majority," led by China and Russia.
According to Dr. Bryc, any potential ceasefire in 2025 will be just an "operational pause." This will allow Russia to rebuild its forces and prepare for a final confrontation with the West in the next two, possibly five, years.
A temporary ceasefire will not cause the Kremlin to abandon its plans. It will only refrain when forced to do so by force – summarizes Dr. Agnieszka Bryc, quoted by PAP.
