Putin's failed gamble: Ukraine's sovereignty defies Kremlin
According to Carmen Claudin from the Barcelona Center for International Affairs (CIDOB), even if Ukraine loses part of its territory, Vladimir Putin has already failed in his war against the country. In a conversation with the Polish Press Agency (PAP), Claudin emphasized that maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty represents a defeat for the Kremlin.
Carmen Claudin, an expert in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet region from CIDOB in Barcelona, believes that Russia has not achieved its primary goal, which was to annihilate Ukraine. "For the time being, there is no talk of Ukraine's defeat," she stressed in her conversation with Polish Press Agency. Despite the potential loss of some territory, Ukraine will remain free and sovereign, which, in reality, signifies Moscow's defeat, "no matter how much Putin may portray it as a victory."
In Claudin's view, Ukraine's lack of security poses a threat to all of Europe, especially Eastern Europe. The analyst points out that the situation could change with Donald Trump's potential victory in the U.S. presidential elections.
"Trump's unpredictability could lead him to pursue a different policy than he has advocated so far, but, of course, Europe must prepare to counteract a policy that could benefit Russian interests greatly," stated the CIDOB expert, as quoted by PAP.
In her opinion, Europe needs to define a more assertive strategy. The continent might face a withdrawal of American support for Kyiv, which would necessitate greater economic and military effort. Also required is a deep change in European political culture, which focuses on building peace and not merely on defence against external aggression, emphasized Claudin.
will Trump freeze the conflict in Ukraine?
Claudin believes that Trump's policy will not quicken the end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict; instead, it may lead to its freezing. "Trump, of course, would present it as peace," she added, noting it would be another falsehood in his long list of parallel realities, as she stated to PAP.
She suggested that in such a situation, Europeans should advocate for an accelerated admission of Ukraine to NATO as the most serious security guarantee against the illegal annexation of its territories.
"Ukraine will remain threatened until a just peace is achieved, which means at least prosecuting Russian war crimes," added Claudin.
