Biden's missile nod: Game changer for Ukraine's Air Defence
At the end of its term, the Joe Biden administration enabled Ukraine to attack targets within Russia using MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles. These will be a significant challenge for Russian aviation. We explain why and present their capabilities.
Permitting Ukraine to use long-range weapons may lead to a breakthrough in the coming weeks, one that Ukrainians have hoped for over the months. The Russians are advancing thanks to a straightforward tactic that works primarily due to military aviation.
This involves sending operational assault groups to a given area, forcing Ukrainian defence activity. Subsequently, detected fortifications or positions are hit by artillery shells or much more effective guided aerial bombs weighing hundreds of kilograms. Later, the area is repeatedly targeted in what is called "meat assaults."
In this way, Ukrainians lost Avdiivka, as they were essentially bombed out. Therefore, building fortifications is pointless without sufficient air defence. Wanting to cope in some way, Ukrainians started attacking Russian airfields with drones. These drones were sometimes able to hit damaged aircraft, but any still flyable aircraft always managed to evacuate to another airfield.
MGM-140 ATACMS — a scourge for Russian aviation
The reason for Russian aviation's high survivability is that drones move at speeds of around 100 km/h, giving the targeted airfield up to an hour to react. The same cannot be said about the MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles, for which covering 300 km is just a matter of a few minutes (speed over Mach 3, approximately 3,700 km/h). This, combined with the lack of reinforced concrete shelters at Russian airfields, could be catastrophic if they are hit by several M39A1 missiles with cluster warheads.
The earliest airfields from which the Russians operate are Morozovsk near Rostov-on-Don, Saky in Crimea, and Marinovka in the Volgograd region. The first two are below 300 km from the front line, and the Marinovka air base is less than 400 km from, for example, Sievierodonetsk. The range might be a bit short for the last one (but the Storm Shadow cruise missiles will reach it), but the first two airfields are already within the reach of MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles.
Even the S-300 or S-400 Triumph anti-missile systems won't assist the Russians here, as they would first have to be taken from some section of the front. Moreover, there have been many instances where American weapons hit these anti-aircraft system batteries.
If the Ukrainians decide to attack Russian airfields, they will most likely use MGM-140 ATACMS missiles in the M39A1 version. These missiles have a range of 300 km and a cluster warhead. They contain 300 M74 APAM bomblets in the form of 600-gram balls with a diameter of 6 cm.
They are made of tungsten and filled with explosive and incendiary material. They detonate due to a simple impact fuse, and the effective range of destruction is a few metres. Tungsten fragments capable of penetrating even bulletproof vests shred everything within the impact zone, and the incendiary liner can cause, for example, the ignition of fuel spilled from damaged aircraft.
A combination of satellite and inertial navigation ensures accurate guidance of the missile over the target, where the bomblet payload is released. It's worth noting that the Russians can jam GPS, but missing by a few dozen feet for a weapon with a damage range measured in hundreds of feet doesn't make much of a difference.
Hitting a good target with several such missiles can paralyze Russian capabilities to attack targets in Ukraine using bombs from the FAB family with UMPK modules. Alternatively, the mere threat of using ATACMS could force the redeployment of aircraft to airfields deeper in Russia, reducing the intensity of attacks and causing logistical problems.
