Ukrainian offensive in Kursk puts Kremlin in turmoil

Since the beginning of August, the world has closely followed events at the Ukraine-Russia border. It is worth recalling that the Ukrainian armed forces launched an offensive operation in Russia that included the Kursk region. In a conversation with "Fakt," former intelligence officer Robert Cheda discussed the possible consequences, Russia's condition, and Vladimir Putin himself.

On August 6, 2024, Ukrainian armed forces began an offensive in the Kursk region, bringing the fighting to Russian territory. These actions aimed not only to regain control over the areas but also to cause destabilization in the Russian power structures.

General Oleksandr Syrsky, the chief commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, confirmed that Ukrainian troops had advanced on various front sections, capturing significant areas of Russian territory. Ukraine now controls over 1,150 square kilometres and 82 localities. Syrsky emphasizes that the Ukrainian offensive continues, repelling Russian counterattacks.

Meanwhile, feverish deliberations are underway in the Kremlin. The Russian political and business elites are under immense pressure.

According to Robert Cheda, a former intelligence officer, the Kremlin faces serious challenges. He points to two key trends currently dominating Russian power circles.

The first process is doubt among the elites about whether Putin's policy, the war, is a mistake, as it increasingly impacts Russian business elites. The economic growth that the Kremlin talks about is a fiction. As long as Putin pumps streams of money into the budget, it keeps going. However, one cannot eat tanks, just like airplanes. All fields bring losses except for the defense industry, which is inefficient - says former intelligence officer Robert Cheda in an interview with "Fakt."

The second process that the expert highlights is the intensive search for a strategy that would allow Putin to save face in this situation. The President of Russia cannot afford a defeat in the clash with Ukraine, which is why he tries to present this conflict as part of a larger struggle with the West.

Putin expects a prolonged Ukrainian defence, but he will also want to show a spectacular victory that goes beyond Kursk and reclaiming territories. Certainly, these will be attacks in Donbas and subversive activities towards the West and Poland, as we are the closest - he adds.

Cheda also notes that the Kremlin has started looking for a scapegoat, someone who will be blamed for the current situation. However, due to current tensions, Putin cannot afford to dismiss his key people, which could be perceived as a sign of weakness. As a result, we can expect the quiet removal of some people from power, which may lead to internal conflicts within the Russian elites.

Putin himself, as Cheda emphasizes, is in a situation of immense tension.

He is paranoid about assassination attempts and conspiracies, so this psychosis in this uncertain situation has increased. He also has a system that protects him mentally from such situations because, otherwise, he would collapse. They take care of him at every moment. It is not excluded that he will take a week's vacation to show that he controls the situation — comments Robert Cheda in an interview with "Fakt."