NATO bolsters Baltic security amidst Russian maritime threats

On Tuesday, during a conference in Helsinki, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced the establishment of the Baltic Guard. At the summit held in the Finnish capital, representatives from eight regional countries and the European Commission were present. The goal of this initiative is to enhance security in the Baltic Sea using frigates, patrol aircraft, and other types of armament.

"This is a rightful reaction from NATO countries, responding to growing security challenges in the Baltic region. In the specific area of the Baltic Sea, there is a need to intensify - within the framework of the Baltic policing mission - patrolling and guarding critical infrastructure. NATO should monitor and guard it around the clock, regardless of the day of the week," Mariusz Marszałkowski, expert at the Defence 24.pl portal and a graduate of internal security at the Faculty of Command and Naval Operations of the Naval Academy, tells Wirtualna Polska.

Recently, there have been a series of incidents in the Baltic Sea, including damage to energy and telecommunications cables running along the sea floor.

On Tuesday alone, the Swedish defence minister announced that Sweden detected damage to another cable in the Baltic. This time it's about Nordbalt, which connects Sweden to Lithuania. Traces lead to a Chinese ship.

Earlier, in the Swedish economic zone in mid-November, two telecommunications cables were severed, one connecting Finland to Germany and the other - Sweden to Finland. The Chinese cargo ship Yi Peng 3, whose captain reportedly had ties to Russia, is suspected of causing the damage.

At the end of December, EstLink2, an undersea electrical cable running under the Gulf of Finland, was severed. Finnish authorities suspect that the damage might be related to the tanker Eagle S, which likely belongs to the Russian shadow fleet.

At the same time, there was also destruction of four submarine data transmission cables. Three between Finland and Estonia and one leading to Germany.

"We must continuously take into account various kinds of threats from Russia in the Baltic. The first of these is the shadow fleet, which consists of ships with unclear ownership. They sail, transporting Russian oil, trying to bypass sanctions and earn for Moscow. In recent months, they have been dropping anchor in the Baltic to damage elements of the infrastructure on the seabed. Whether intentionally or not, that's another matter," comments Marcin Marszałkowski, expert of Defence 24.pl

As he emphasizes, the shadow fleet can be relatively easily identified, detected, and monitored.

"These are large ships, usually container ships and tankers. They sail slowly, and with Baltic monitoring, they can be traced. It would be worse if the NATO patrol mission proves effective and manages to deter the shadow fleet, and in its place appear units specialized in sabotage, e.g., involving divers or diversionary groups. Their goal could be to blow up elements of underwater infrastructure or cut cables on the Baltic seabed," forecasted the interlocutor of Wirtualna Polska.

In his opinion, controlling every, even very small, shipping unit is very complicated. Meanwhile, almost all of them can carry equipment for divers, submersibles, or remotely operated devices.

"They can also transport explosive loads, which they place on the Baltic seabed and conduct a remote detonation," Marszałkowski says.

As he recalls, Russia has the Institute of Deep-Sea Special Operations, part of the Russian Ministry of Defence, specifically supervised by military intelligence.

"This Institute operates several miniature underwater vessels designed for acts of sabotage. These units are stationed near Saint Petersburg, and therefore are a constant threat to NATO countries in the Baltic. Due to this, the risk of incidents in the Baltic Sea remains high. If military means are involved in such an event, we are already talking about significant escalation," Mariusz Marszałkowski believes.

Before flying to the summit in Helsinki, Prime Minister Donald Tusk reminded that already on November 27, Poland proposed in Stockholm to strengthen control in the Baltic, with the participation of the Baltic states, as part of NATO's activities.

As he explained, this was triggered by recurring incidents in the Baltic. "These incidents were linked to the so-called shadow fleet. These are ships registered in a strange, ambiguous manner, primarily engaged in oil transport. All signs point to it being Russian oil, thus bypassing sanctions," Tusk said.

The model for the initiative was NATO Air Policing, i.e., NATO aircraft controlling the airspace over allied countries. However, the proposed patrol would take place in the Baltic Sea. Tusk indicated that the solutions aim at deterrence, but also effectively monitoring who enters the Baltic and with what. He mentioned that our country would engage four ships to patrol the Baltic.

"I will emphasize once again that the initiative is correct. We are talking about a mission to protect critical infrastructure. But remember that every day a ship, vessel, or helicopters are operating, it is an enormous cost for every engaged country. And Russia is interested in absorbing and diverting attention in the Baltic. The Kremlin wants and coerces Allied nations to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars or euros at sea. The same resources could be allocated for another purpose, e.g., exercises in the Baltic. The Russians want to disperse the forces of NATO countries through sabotage," Mariusz Marszałkowski assesses.

As he adds, if Poland wants to send four Navy ships to the Baltic patrolling mission, significant doubts arise.

"What forces and resources does the Polish Navy have and what do we want to send? Unfortunately, now the years of neglect that individual governments engaged in against the navy may come to light. We still have obsolete and emergency equipment, which was mostly in repair shipyards. After all, NATO will be watching our effectiveness, but also Russia. It would be embarrassing if it suddenly turned out that a Polish ship patrolling the Baltic had a serious malfunction," Marszałkowski concludes.