Ukrainian offensive in Kursk prompts global strategic shifts

- It is possible that the operation in the Kursk region is a type of Ukrainian counteroffensive. In the coming days, we should see from which direction on the front Russia will withdraw some of its troops. Then the situation may drastically change, says Oleg Zhdanov, a Ukrainian military expert and retired colonel.

Tatiana Kolesnychenko: According to the "Washington Post," the Ukrainian Armed Forces have taken control of the gas measuring station in the city of Sudzha in the Kursk region. This is currently the only pipeline through which Russian gas flows to Europe. Even within Ukraine, there are concerns about how Western allies of Kyiv might react.

Oleg Zhdanov: First, not allies, but Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria, which are the main recipients of Russian gas and either do not support Ukraine or are neutral toward it. Second, the pipeline runs through Ukrainian territory, and until the end of this year, that is until the contract expires, Kyiv will not shut off the valve, because it receives part of that gas in the form of a reverse flow from Slovakia. So the "Washington Post" can write whatever it wants, but the gas is still flowing.

So you believe that the information about seizing the station is untrue?

I didn't say that. There is a high probability that Russia does not control the station. However, we do not have official confirmation that it was seized by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And what if it is the Freedom of Russia Legion? In this case, the implication is entirely different.

Let's go step by step. Indeed, another day has passed, the Ukrainian military is reporting on the situation on the front, but they are not mentioning an attack on the Kursk region. Officials do not want to comment on these events by name. What is the reason for this restraint?

I assume that our military and political leadership was waiting for the world's reaction. Today we have statements from Brussels and Washington, in which there was no criticism. So it's only a matter of time before President Zelensky officially confirms the status of the soldiers fighting in the Kursk region. I think this is the only reason we had to wait for an official statement.

Could the reaction have been different? State Department spokesman Matthew Miller claims that the United States did not know about the impending attack on the Kursk region.

It's hard for me to believe that. Perhaps the White House didn't have all the information, but certainly, the Pentagon not only knew but also helped plan this operation. It is very well organised, which indicates that it was planned for a long time.

In addition, Ukraine fights within the framework of international law and respects the rules of warfare. What complaints could there be against us?

You mentioned the Freedom of Russia Legion, but it is known that in the Kursk region, the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 80th and 82nd Air Assault Brigades are actually operating.

Unofficially - yes. However, the main striking force is formed by the 22nd and 82nd, but they are supported by separate units from other brigades.

...and we know this from the so-called "war correspondents," that is, Russian military bloggers. It's a bit of a bizarre and at the same time dangerous situation.

That's true, so whatever they write should be taken with a grain of salt. If I use these sources, I compare information from the "court" bloggers associated with the military. This way, I can extract an outline of the situation.

And what is that outline now?

According to bloggers, there are between 10,000 and 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region. This is an exaggeration, but even if two brigades are fighting there, that gives us about 5,000 people. In fact, it is a military corps.

They also write that Ukrainians have invented a "new way of conducting war" because they do not attack positions where entrenched soldiers are sitting but bypass them, surround them, and only then storm in small groups of 4-5 soldiers. This further convinces me that Americans were involved in preparing this operation.

When the first reports of an attack on the Kursk region appeared, it did not arouse much interest in the media because it was assumed that it would last, at best, a few days. This was the case with previous raids by Russian volunteer legions. But here, the tactics are completely different?

Different tactics, different tasks, different political effects. During earlier raids, volunteer units operated mainly in the border area. Their goal was not deep penetration of the territory but maximum publicity. The whole thing had the tone of a civil war.

Russians against the Russian regime - that was the message. And now? Ukrainian occupation of Russia?

A liberation war against Russian occupiers. If Zelensky officially declares that our Armed Forces are operating in the Kursk region, it will be the first time in modern Russian history that foreign troops have taken control of its territory. And if we consider Russia as an extension of the Soviet Union, then since World War II. So this is already a political defeat for Putin. That's why he behaved the way he did during the Security Council meeting. His hands were shaking, and he was clearly disoriented.

So this operation has a different concept from the beginning. While earlier raids mainly used light military equipment, here we see tanks—according to Russian bloggers—whole columns, air defence, and artillery. The main task of the forces is to expand the bridgehead as much as possible and prepare to hold positions.

To hold positions, you need supply lines. What will happen when ammunition and provisions run out in a few days?

I see various sources reporting that right behind the advancing troops, logistics units were following. This means that while the Russians were disoriented, refuelling points were established, fuel, ammunition, and food were delivered, and field hospitals were set up. On some sections of the front, engineering units are already working, preparing positions. Infantry is digging in, creating defence lines. It all looks like a well-planned operation.

The lack of official information has led to a plethora of sometimes crazy theories about the strategic goal of this operation. One of them says that Ukraine wants to seize the Kursk nuclear power plant. The logic is simple: if no international institutions can force Russia to withdraw from the Zaporizhzhia plant, or even impose sanctions on Rosatom, which still controls 40% of the global uranium enrichment market, then Ukraine has no choice but to take over a Russian plant and exchange it for Zaporizhzhia.

The Kursk nuclear power plant is only 70 kilometres from the border with Ukraine. But I believe that seizing it would be a huge mistake. We shouldn’t engage in nuclear blackmail. It goes unpunished for Russia, but Ukraine could lose already declining support in the world. Countries that are neutral would have a final excuse not to support us.

There are other critical infrastructure objects in the Kursk region. For example, in the Sudzha district, there is a 330 kV substation that connects the Kursk power plant with the Ukrainian power grid and the Biełgorod power plant. Most importantly, the substation feeds the railway in these front-line regions. And already now, Russia has a diesel shortage. After a series of Ukrainian attacks on refineries in Russia, data on the production of diesel, fuel, and gasoline were classified because it dropped sharply.

So I don't think Ukraine would go as far as seizing the power plant. The strategic goal of this operation was entirely different.

To pull Russian troops away from Donbas, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are losing more villages?

From a military point of view, this is an attempt to stretch Russian forces across two fronts. We have fairly reliable information that Russia currently has no reserves.

How come? According to the Kremlin, about 30,000 new soldiers are mobilized every month.

Yes, but these 30,000 are personnel who replenish ongoing losses at the front. Reserve refers to brigades or divisions stationed in barracks, ready to go to the front at any moment. And there are no such units in Russia anymore.

Yes, they manage to push Ukrainian forces back a few hundred yards, sometimes a mile. But the costs they incur are enormous. The entire logic of the combat operations boils down to the fact that first, our positions are bombed, then shelled by artillery, and finally, there are waves of infantry assault. These waves can repeat four or five times. If unsuccessful, shelling resumes, and then another assault. The problem is that we do not have prepared defence lines, so we retreat, dig in, and the Russians do everything to prevent us from doing so.

So sometimes we lose villages, but Russia suffers huge infantry losses. It is simply running out of soldiers. The tens of thousands of people mobilized each month patch holes but do not create a reserve. So now we are only waiting for information on which direction Russia will start withdrawing troops to transfer them to the Kursk region.

Where do you think they could withdraw troops from? Probably not from Donbas, which remains the main target of the offensive. So the south? The Kharkiv region?

It won't suffice to transfer a brigade or a few regiments. They will need at least a division, which is 10,000 to 12,000 people. This number can only be pulled from the Luhansk or Donetsk regions. Large troop concentrations are stationed in both.

On the Rubizhne-Kreminna-Svatove direction in the Luhansk region, there are about 110,000 soldiers, and the main formation is the 1st Guards Tank Army from the Moscow district. The only such unit in the world, as no other country still has tank armies in its armed forces. It is very heavy and not very manoeuvrable, so its transfer will take a lot of time.

Another possible direction is Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, and possibly Toretsk. It is estimated that Russia has about 80,000 to 90,000 soldiers there. They can pull some out, but this will significantly slow the pace of the offensive.

So the Kremlin is now facing the question: which direction to weaken? This will affect the front, and it is quite possible that the Russians will be forced to go on the defensive. We, on the other hand, will be able to start attacking. The vector of combat operations will shift.

Some Western experts, however, strongly criticize the Ukrainian tactics. Similar attacks do not have long-term goals, and Kyiv is stretching already exhausted troops to another front.

It's the worst to fall into your own trap. Military history does not know any examples where a commander won a war on two fronts. So by opening this second front, we have to deal with truly large forces.

Ukraine was suffering from an ammunition shortage just a few months ago. Are you saying it now has "large forces"?

I think our counterintelligence conducted a very successful information and psychological operation. There was so much talk about lack of weapons. Zelensky said that of the 14 new brigades, only three were armed. And now we see whole columns entering the Kursk region. So the weapons were there, just waiting for the right moment, which has now come. I am optimistic because we have improved the situation with mobilization, and the USA has approved additional aid packages. If we manage this wisely, the operation in the Kursk region has a chance of success.