Trump's return: Renewed tensions with Iran loom large

During his first term, Donald Trump pursued a markedly anti-Iranian foreign policy. First, in 2018, he withdrew from the nuclear agreement with Iran, which he called the "worst deal in history," and then imposed severe sanctions on every sector of the Iranian economy. At the same time, the Trump administration threatened EU member states, Russia, and China with so-called secondary sanctions if they continued trading with Iran.

The policy, termed the "maximum pressure policy" by the Trump administration, severely impacted the Iranian economy but failed to achieve its goal of forcing Iran to negotiate a new agreement. This new deal, apart from addressing Iran's nuclear activities, was also intended to manage issues like Iran's ballistic missile program and the pro-Iranian network of militias operating in the Middle East (the so-called Axis of Resistance).

President Biden's administration tried to reset relations with Iran and rejoin the nuclear agreement but did not succeed. After Russia invaded Ukraine, Biden's team quietly allowed Iran to increase oil exports to protect global markets from rising oil prices.

As a result, by the summer of 2024, Iranian oil exports reached around 270,000 m³ per day, the highest level since the U.S. withdrew from the nuclear agreement. It's unsurprising that Trump's team strongly criticizes the outgoing administration, labeling Biden's policy towards Iran as "appeasement," which means "pacification."

Indications from the president-elect's team suggest that when Donald Trump returns to the White House in January 2025, he will resume the "maximum pressure policy" implemented against Iran during his previous term. However, considering "maximum pressure" didn't succeed from 2016 to 2020, it's challenging to expect it to work now.

Iran's international stance has considerably evolved, consequently, a "course correction" may be required, moving towards bolder actions. However, military involvement is not necessarily ruled out—though not necessarily by American forces. In the Middle East, one U.S. ally is ready to undertake this "dirty work" (i.e., an attack on Iran).

During Donald Trump's first term, the U.S. managed to discourage Russia and China from trading with Iran through the threat of so-called secondary sanctions on Russian and Chinese companies. However, this time Trump's team might meet with more resistance, especially from Russia.

The conflict in Ukraine has altered Moscow's stance towards Iran. Previously, Russia, wishing to avoid conflict with the U.S., withdrew from most economic projects in Iran. Now, with Russia facing sanctions, Russian-Iranian economic cooperation is thriving, evidenced by, for example, deliveries of Iranian arms to Russia or Russian investments in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which connects Russia, through Iran, with India. As long as the war in Ukraine persists and Moscow is under sanctions, Russia will maintain contact with Iran.

Similarly, it will be challenging to persuade China to reduce trade with Iran. The stakes are high, as about 90% of Iran's oil exports go to China, approximately 240,000 m³ per day.

Unlike in 2018, currently, Iranian oil is being purchased not by large Chinese state-owned enterprises but by so-called "teapot refineries" – small, private refiners who trade with Iran using China's currency, circumventing American sanctions.

Iran's relations with Russia and China are therefore much stronger than in 2018 when Trump pulled out of the nuclear agreement. However, every stick has two ends. Thus, in this case, Trump - in the "second round" with Iran - may count on an unexpected ally, the European Union.

In 2018, EU member states criticized the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran, but the situation is quite different now. Due to the military aid Iran provided to Putin during the attack on Ukraine, the EU will likely side with Trump in the upcoming conflict with Iran. EU support could significantly impact. Washington is considering using EU countries to trigger the so-called "snapback mechanism" to reinstate sanctions previously imposed by the UN on Iran before the nuclear agreement was established.

Trump also benefits from Iran's waning influence in the Middle East and the setbacks that the pro-Iranian Axis of Resistance has faced in recent months against Israel. The political and military leadership of Hamas has been dismantled, most Hamas units have been crushed, and the Gaza Strip is completely devastated.

The Lebanese Hezbollah has also suffered significant setbacks: the organization's leadership (headed by Hassan Nasrallah) has been eliminated, part of its missile arsenal destroyed, and thousands of fighters killed. An even more significant blow to Iran was losing their Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad, which severed Iran's direct connection to Lebanon and Hezbollah.

After more than a year of struggling with Israel, only a shadow remains of the former strength of the Axis of Resistance. Currently, Iran can chiefly rely on Shiite militias in Iraq and the Yemeni Houthis. Worse yet, the setbacks for the Axis of Resistance and Israel's victories have greatly strengthened Prime Minister Netanyahu's position, who—according to some Israeli media—is already preparing for a military strike on Iran's nuclear program.

According to Donald Trump's associates, the president-elect is still shaping his strategy toward Iran. Their statements suggest the goal—similar to 2018—will be to reach a new agreement with Iran rather than overthrow the Islamic Republic. The core of Trump's strategy will be a return to the "maximum pressure policy," but—unlike in 2018—this time, Trump intends to emphasize military aspects more and contemplate a direct strike on Iran's nuclear program.

Statements from Trump's team suggest that the president-elect does not plan to use American military forces against Iran. Trump leans more toward a scenario where the U.S. provides extensive support to Israel, and the Israeli air force conducts strikes on facilities involved in Iran's nuclear program.

Prime Minister Netanyahu would likely welcome such a plan. After the recent defeats Israel inflicted on the pro-Iranian Axis of Resistance, Netanyahu is eager to finally confront the Islamic Republic.

However, an Israeli attack on Iranian research facilities poses significant danger. Some of Iran's nuclear program operations are conducted in facilities deep underground, making them resistant to Israeli attacks. In such cases, Iran might cease restraint and attempt to develop nuclear weapons.

Therefore, paradoxically, the policy pursued by Trump and Netanyahu could lead to the very scenario it aims to prevent—an Iran armed with nuclear weapons.