Austrian political shake-up: Pro‑Russian Kickl tasked with govt formation
After entrusting the task of forming a government to Herbert Kickl, leader of the pro-Russian FPÖ party, "there is a significant risk of a shift in Austria's foreign policy direction," assesses Jakub Bielamowicz of the New Europe Institute in a conversation with the Polish Press Agency.
On Monday, the President of Austria, Alexander Van der Bellen, tasked Herbert Kickl, leader of the far-right, Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant, and pro-Russian Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), with forming a new government. This decision came after the weekend collapse of coalition negotiations led by the former leader of the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP), Karl Nehammer.
At a press conference, the president explained that new circumstances on the Austrian political scene allowed the libertarian leader to be appointed as chancellor.
Jakub Bielamowicz shares a similar view, explaining that "with the resignation of Chancellor and ÖVP leader Karl Nehammer, a real possibility of forming an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition government has opened up." The analyst recalled that "Nehammer was the most ardent opponent of elevating 'extremist' Kickl to the position of chancellor."
He noted that following Nehammer's resignation, Christian Stocker, deputy mayor of Wiener Neustadt, became the interim head of the Christian-democratic ÖVP. Stocker is considered a second-tier politician and is characterized by a pragmatic approach to political tasks. Stocker declared on Sunday that if his group is invited to coalition negotiations, the People's Party will participate in these talks.
"It is worth noting that the FPÖ's negotiating position will be very strong," emphasized Bielamowicz, pointing to the Freedom Party's record ratings. Recent polls give them 6-8 percentage points more than they achieved in the September elections. "Kickl and FPÖ negotiators will always be able to threaten their willingness to participate in early elections, after which their position as a larger coalition partner could be even stronger," explained the analyst.
He pointed to concerns related to a potential ÖVP-FPÖ cabinet. "The previous experiences with the 'black-blue' coalitions from 2000-2007 and 2017-2019 are very poor," recalled Bielamowicz. These governments were characterized by considerable instability, numerous corruption scandals, and poor personnel decisions, especially from the FPÖ.
What the new Austrian government might do
He suggested that the libertarians, strengthened by the recent failure of mainstream parties (ÖVP, SPÖ, and NEOS), might become even more radical after taking power. "It cannot be ruled out that actions by this party aimed at weakening the rule of law will occur, especially since certain attempts were already made in ministries previously controlled by FPÖ politicians," he emphasized.
Bielamowicz noted that the libertarian's leader does not hide who his political role model is. "Herbert Kickl is strongly inspired by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, which he openly admits in public statements," he noted.
He also pointed to the risks associated with the pro-Russian sympathies of the potential new chancellor. "There is a significant risk of a shift in Austria's foreign policy direction," he assessed. He recalled that in 2016, the FPÖ signed a friendship agreement with Putin's United Russia party and consistently opposed supporting Ukraine, which is fighting against Russian aggression.
The analyst also highlighted that no one other than the former Austrian foreign minister from the FPÖ, Karin Kneissl, invited Vladimir Putin to her wedding. "After all, she fled to Russia, where she became a propagandist for the regime's media," he noted.
Despite this, Bielamowicz sees a glimmer of hope. "A moderating influence on the foreign policy of a potential FPÖ-involved government might come from having the Ministry of Foreign Affairs taken over by a representative of the more moderate Christian democracy," he predicts.
The failure of previous negotiations
Chancellor Nehammer announced his resignation from the position of head of the government and leader of the conservative ÖVP on Saturday after failing to form a coalition government without the FPÖ. Previously, the chancellor's party made a final attempt at coalition talks with the Social Democrats.
In the parliamentary elections held on September 29, the FPÖ won 28.8% of the votes. The previously ruling ÖVP was second (26.3%), followed by SPÖ (21.1%), the liberal NEOS (New Austria and Liberal Forum; 9.2%), and the Greens (8.3%).
Despite the libertarians' victory, President Van der Bellen entrusted the task of forming a new government to the outgoing chancellor, Nehammer. He explained this decision by stating that the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats firmly excluded joining a government led by the FPÖ leader.
