Russia's military aviation struggles to keep pace amidst Ukraine war
Although Russian military aviation has suffered proportionally fewer losses than ground forces, it is in a state of collapse. The war in Ukraine has accelerated the ongoing degradation of Russian equipment and its capabilities, with the industry failing to keep up with replenishing losses.
Russian military aviation was already on a downward slope before the attack on Ukraine. Its backbone consists of old aircraft, and Russian design bureaus and factories, contrary to propaganda statements, cannot provide the military with successors to aircraft designed during the Soviet era.
According to Defence 24 expert Maciej Szopa’s estimates, of the approximately 1,200 Russian aircraft in service, 550 are nearing the end of their life cycles. They are worn out and have spent so many hours in the air that they reach the end of their structural durability. This applies to Su-24, Su-25, Su-27, and MiG-29 and MiG-31 aircraft.
According to Ukrainian estimates, Russia is using 300 different types of aircraft daily in its operations. Maciej Szopa believes that, taking into account the fleet's operational efficiency, this indicates that Russia has engaged the majority of its combat aircraft in the fighting.
How many combat aircraft does Russia have?
The actual number of aircraft suitable for combat is 850 units.
Approximately 340-360 aircraft produced after 2010 (such as the Su-30, Su-34, Su-35, and Su-57, as well as older strategic bombers) should be regarded as promising and capable of effective use in combat during a hypothetical confrontation between Russia and NATO countries.
At the same time, irrespective of damages or shoot-downs resulting from participation in battles, due to wear and tear, Russia will have to withdraw around 60 aircraft this year alone.
How many aircraft does Russia produce?
Additionally, at least 12 aircraft were destroyed by Ukrainians in the first half of the year (losses may be higher, but the destruction of 12 aircraft is confirmed by photographic documentation).
Meanwhile, in 2022, the Russian industry produced only 27 new combat aircraft. In 2023, it was 24, and by mid-2024, only six. As a result, the degradation of the capabilities of Russian aviation is progressing.
The number of withdrawn and destroyed aircraft significantly exceeds the Russian industry's production capabilities, and the potential of Russian military aviation is systematically decreasing.
