Russian offensive's limited gains: Insights from military analysis

Russian successes on the front are limited and local, says military analyst Mariusz Cielma, although they still have the initiative and decide where and when they will attack. The most active combat operations are currently concentrated in the eastern part of the Donetsk region.

- None of the grim forecasts about the attack on Kharkiv, a major Russian summer offensive, or breaking through the front and entering the so-called operational space have come true, says Mariusz Cielma, editor-in-chief of "Nowa Technika Wojskowa," to PAP.

- The Russians still have the initiative, but similarly to before their capabilities are rather limited to local successes - notes Cielma.

The intensity of front-line activities is high. Recently, the Ukrainian staff reported up to 240 combat contacts daily along the entire front line. As Cielma says, the most active combat operations are taking place in the Donetsk region, particularly in its eastern part.

- In the area west of Avdiivka, the situation has still not stabilized after the Russian breach about two months ago. There Ukrainians are increasingly concerned as the Russians, through frontal attacks and heavy losses, are slowly breaking through in a westward direction. They have already taken Novooleksandrivka, and about 10 kilometres further is an important route for Ukrainians. The Russians are approaching it, and logistics, as we know, are crucial. This is a road that also leads to the group from Chasiv Yar, which is being unsuccessfully attacked by the Russians - adds Cielma. Despite many weeks of attacks, the Russians have not been able to take this locality and cross the Siverskyi Donets canal.

- A new place (of Russian attacks) has appeared on the map in Toretsk and New York, north of Avdiivka and south of Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar. There, in essence, the front line has not changed since 2015 - notes Cielma, adding that the goal of the Russians, who also had success here thanks to repeated frontal assaults, is undoubtedly to capture these localities.

In the Kharkiv region, where Ukrainian authorities and Western media were alarmed in May with a major Russian offensive, "The Russians very quickly switched to defence."

- From the beginning, there were neither adequate forces nor preparations for larger offensive operations there. Still, the Russians might have aimed to draw Ukrainian units to this section of the front near Kharkiv from other, sometimes distant, front sections. This succeeded, as we saw Ukrainian brigade elements being transferred there. On the other hand, since the Ukrainians switched to attacks there due to losses, the Russians also had to bring more of their forces there - said Cielma.

As he adds, in the area of Russian attacks around the locality of Lyptsy, "Russian enthusiasm ran out very quickly." - Then it was clear that the Russians focused on attempts to capture Vovchansk, but despite engaging more forces and prolonged efforts, they failed - he summarizes.

According to the expert, the approval from Washington to use American GLMRS missiles, launched from HIMARS launchers (range up to 80 kilometres), to attack targets in the Belgorod region, from where the Russians were shelling Kharkiv, was of great significance to the Ukrainian side.

- Shelling from S-300 and S-400 systems from Russian territory was incessantly ongoing. Attacks using American missiles at least temporarily forced the Russians to move this weaponry - says Cielma.

Summarizing the last few weeks on the front, but also evaluating the course of the war in the longer term, the PAP interlocutor notes that "the greatest Russian gains actually took place in the early months of the invasion, and later Russian actions, despite engaging significant forces, no longer yielded significant successes but caused many losses."

- Vladimir Putin recently claimed that currently, over 600,000 soldiers are involved in the war in Ukraine, which might suggest that the Russians are not only able to replenish losses but also build reserves. However, this is not visible on the front. This could mean that these numbers are exaggerated. Besides, the quality of this "new recruit" is already much lower, as most of those who wanted and could fight are already exhausted - says Cielma.