Russian forces surge in Donbas, risking collapse of Ukrainian front

The Russian army has rapidly accelerated its offensive in the Donbas after the Ukrainian Armed Forces' incursion into the Kursk region. As of the end of August, the pace of the Russian troops' advance was almost 31 square kilometres per day, estimate analysts from the Finnish group Black Bird based on maps from the Ukrainian project DeepState.

According to calculations by the Black Bird group, the speed at which Russian forces are moving doubled in the last four weeks and continues to increase: in June and July, it was 5 to 10 square kilometres per day, and by mid-August, it was already up to 16 to 21 square kilometres.

As noted by the "Financial Times," within three weeks of the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, Russian forces captured at least 20 villages. According to estimates by the Black Bird Group, they are now only 8 kilometres from Pokrovsk, a key logistic point through which the Ukrainian group in the Donetsk region is supplied.

"Now, the entire central Donetsk frontline sector is under threat of collapsing," writes military analyst Julian Ropcke of "Bild." "Russian forces [are] advancing in the north and south and hence flanking Ukrainian units in the center," he adds.

In recent days, Ukrainian troops have left Kalinovo and Memryk and on Friday, lost another 8 square kilometres near Karlivka. "The domino effect between Donetsk city and Pokrovsk continues," adds Ropcke.

The "Kursk operation" by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which shocked the Kremlin and the General Staff and lowered Vladimir Putin's ratings to a record low since the beginning of the war, did not achieve the goal of diverting Russian forces from the front in the Donbas.

The situation near Pokrovsk is "extremely difficult,” admitted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a speech on August 28. The city of 20,000 people "will fall much faster than Bakhmut did," wrote the "Financial Times," quoting one of the Ukrainian soldiers fighting near Pokrovsk. Earlier, the authorities announced the evacuation of the population from the city and nearby villages.

"Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, attributed the Russian gains to a shortage of experienced Ukrainian infantry and the diversion of resources to the Kursk offensive," reports the Financial Times. "Ukraine committed reserves to Kursk, leaving fewer options to plug gaps elsewhere. Some of the more experienced brigades have been replaced by newer, less experienced units," explains Lee.

The Kremlin decided not to move forces from Donbas to the Kursk region, sources close to the Kremlin informed Bloomberg last week. According to them, Putin decided to send conscripts to Kursk, whose number in the army is estimated at 300,000.