Putin's conscription crisis: Russia struggles to hold Kursk line

Putin does not have enough soldiers to fill the gap in the defence of the Kursk region. According to experts, nearly two weeks after the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, there are still fewer Russian soldiers in the region than Ukrainian soldiers. Therefore, conscripts from the other areas of Russia have started to be gathered for its defence. "People are terrified," says a representative of the "Go by the Forest" project.

"Go into the Woods" is a Russian opposition project that emerged after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It helps Russians avoid forced conscription into the army and being sent to the front. Following Ukraine's attack on the Kursk region, thousands of conscripts have contacted volunteers, warning that they are at risk of being sent to the Kursk region.

— We are being overwhelmed with requests. We are barely managing — said Ivan Chuvilayev, spokesperson for the project, in an interview with the "Financial Times". According to him, the conscripts, who have begun to be sent to the Kursk region from other regions, along with their families, have started to seek help en masse.

This started in some regions but now it is clear that there is conscription mobilization all over Russia — adds Chuvilayev.

According to the spokesperson, at least ten units have requested conscripts, "so it's safe to say that about a thousand people have been sent (to Kursk)." About 250 conscripts have been transferred from the unit in the Leningrad region in Russia.

— People are terrified — he added.

Initially, the border zone was to be guarded by FSB border guards, the Chechen Akhmat battalion, and military units stationed there. According to Dara Massicot, a specialist in Russian armed forces and a senior fellow at Carnegie Berlin Center for the Study of Russia and Eurasia, Russian command has transferred additional forces from military districts in Leningrad and Moscow, "some of them are conscripts."

No one guarding the border was prepared for the invasion of Ukrainian troops — to such an extent that even some bloggers (sympathetic to the Kremlin) accused the Chechens of "striking a deal" with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to them, Akhmat deliberately allowed the Ukrainians to cross the border.

Meanwhile, a few days after the operation began, the project published a video showing dozens of prisoners of war, including Akhmat fighters. The commentary noted that the Chechens were "caught deep in the rear" and "did not even try to resist," as well as "hiding behind conscripts on the tenth line of defence near Kursk."

Numerous times, this version of events has been confirmed by conscripts who were captured at the border by Ukrainians.

— Obviously, it is not easy for Russia to plug the hole in Kursk — says Pavel Luzin, an expert on the Russian army and the military-industrial complex, a visiting senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis. — Already in the second half of 2023, military personnel from other branches of the armed forces were redirected (to Ukraine). They sent people from the navy, from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, and so on — adds Luzin.

"The defence failure in the Kursk region only reinforces this trend. Due to personnel shortages in the ground forces, the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Kursk is now reflected in the temporary motorized rifle regiment of the Aerospace Forces, specially gathered from all over Russia — including from the nuclear strike warning station and the heavy bomber regiment" — the "Important Stories" project reported, citing a person familiar with the situation in the units of the Aerospace Forces.

According to Luzin, conscript soldiers, currently about 300,000, are the only significant force that can be sent to the Kursk region. Putin repeatedly assured that conscripts would not participate in the "special military operation." By law, only those who have served for four months and undergone special training can be sent to combat zones.

— However, conscripts are being forced to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defence, and their documents are being falsified to make it look like they have served longer — says Chuvilayev.