Kremlin fears domestic unrest as soldiers return from war
The Kremlin fears the return of soldiers from the front, which may lead to an escalation of violence within Russia, warns Polish Eastern Studies Institute (OSW) analyst Katarzyna Chawryło.
According to data, since February 2022, between 300,000 and 800,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded in the invasion of Ukraine. Those who return from the front often bring fear and bitterness back to their hometowns. In 2023, Russian courts sentenced 116 soldiers for premeditated murders, a dramatic increase compared to previous years.
OSW analyst Katarzyna Chawryło emphasizes that the war has become a new reality for Russian society. "The war has now become the norm and has been presented to society as a new reality. It is also seen as an opportunity to earn money and improve living standards or gain social advancement," she said in the program "World According to Poland".
At the same time, the war leads to an escalation of violence within Russia. "On one hand, the authorities are aware of this because they do not allow mass rotation of soldiers. Those who joined the ranks and are on the front can return at most for short leaves because the Russian society complains about them. However, there is no mass return of Russians from the front to their homes, unless in body bags," Chawryło emphasized.
Soldiers degraded by war "completely evade social norms and are demoralized by combat." Often dealing with post-traumatic stress, the state does not want to and has no aspirations to address them. Murders and rapes in their places of residence cause fear and paralysis in Russian society, the analyst reminded.
Chawryło stressed that at this moment all of Russia "is based on violence." "The authority over society, different institutions over society, parents over children, or husbands over wives. Violence is everywhere, and additionally, war violence and the permission for it overlap," she warned.
Russia wants to talk to the USA
The expert emphasized that the Kremlin has long signalled a lack of readiness to negotiate with the Ukrainian authorities for a peace agreement. The Russians want to do it over their heads, for example, with the USA. That's why Vladimir Putin and his circle have pinned hopes on Donald Trump's second term in the White House.
"Looking at the internal situation in Russia, a dangerous moment for the regime will be the return of all veterans and people degraded by war from the front. Putin is not interested in quickly ending this war. First, those social relations, tensions, and the threat of a social explosion. Second, the entire state's military apparatus, the arms industry, security sector, and society are set on war tracks. The authorities do not have a prepared scenario of what to offer society in place of the war and how to manage the entire military sector. The authorities may have an enormous problem with this," she emphasized.
Source: "Fakt"
