Grom-2 missile tests signal a new phase in Ukraine's defence strategy

Ukrainians have showcased their testing of the Grom-2 ballistic missile, equivalent to the Russian Iskanders-M, against which defence is tough. These new missiles will allow Ukraine to attack Russian territory without needing Western approval. This has been the focus of Ukrainian efforts for nearly two decades.

Ukrainians completed the work on a successor to the Soviet-era Tochka-U systems, a project conducted intermittently since 2003. These efforts gained momentum after Russia annexed Crimea and parts of Donbas in 2014. The first test launch of the Grom/Grom-2 missile was supposed to take place in 2018, and an operational readiness battery, consisting of two launchers and command vehicles, was expected a year later.

It's possible that Ukrainians used this battery to strike the Russian airbase Saki in Crimea in 2022, long before they received the American MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles. Additionally, it is worth noting that, according to reports, Ukrainians secured stable financing for the program in 2023, as mentioned by then-Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov in June 2023.

Details about the Grom or Grom-2 missiles are unknown. Still, previous reports about an export version for Saudi Arabia suggested the development of a ballistic missile with a warhead weighing 480 kilograms and a range of 300 kilometres, which is the maximum allowed by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

Meanwhile, for their own use, Ukrainians were likely aiming for a missile with a range of approximately 500 kilometres, similar to the Russian Iskanders-M. Guidance is most likely based on a combination of inertial and satellite navigation, as with competing systems.

This is not an ideal solution due to the possibility of GPS signal jamming. Still, the massive warhead, likely in both fragmentation and cluster variants, will ensure sufficient destructive capabilities even if it misses by about ten metres.

Grom-2 missiles will be an ideal means to target Russian airfields located about 500 kilometres from the front lines, as ballistic missiles travelling around Mach 7 (8,640 kilometres per hour) can cover 500 kilometres in a few minutes. Currently, using drone swarms moving at just over 120 kilometres per hour for strikes on airfields in Russia leaves a lot of time (usually over an hour) for the evacuation of all aircraft from the threatened airfield.

This feat will not be possible with ballistic missiles, which can only be intercepted by medium-range air defence systems. It is worth noting, however, that Russian air defence has already lost battles against ATACMS, which are not next-generation systems (dating from the 1990s).

Unfortunately, Ukrainians cannot use these ballistic missiles to attack targets on Russian territory due to American restrictions. This won't be an issue with their locally built missiles, which eight or ten-wheeled launchers will carry.