First Western troops to train Ukrainian soldiers amidst tension
This will be a breakthrough. For the first time, Western soldiers will go to Ukraine—the goal is to train Ukrainians. The decision is causing concern in Germany, among other countries. "Soon, once it becomes clear that this has not triggered NATO's Article 5 nor World War III, everyone will understand that this is a reasonable move," says U.S. military professor Jahara Matisek to o2.pl.
The initiative came from French President Emmanuel Macron, who announced over the weekend that France would establish an alliance under which the first Western soldiers would go to Ukraine within a few days. They will be military instructors. In February, Macron broke a taboo and was the first Western leader to state that he does not rule out sending troops to Ukraine.
Macron invited several countries to participate in the coalition announced over the weekend, including Poland, the Baltic states, the United Kingdom, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden. He did not reveal which countries had accepted the invitation but assured: "We are not alone, and in the coming days, we will launch the coalition."
According to "Le Monde," several hundred instructors may initially go to Ukraine. Macron's plan is praised by Jahara Matisek, a military professor at the Naval War College, a research institution belonging to the U.S. Navy. "Placing soldiers from the U.S., Canada, or European countries west of the Dnieper River should be the minimum plan. They could, for instance, go to a training centre in Lviv. That will be a good first step," says Matisek, a Lt. Col. in the U.S. Air Force on active duty and a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, to o2.pl.
"Soon, once it turns out that this has not triggered NATO's Article 5 nor World War III, everyone will understand that this is a reasonable move. Currently, Ukrainian soldiers need to be sent for training in European countries, which is a huge burden in terms of time and resources," he adds.
Russia threatens, Matisek reassures. "A simple reason"
The German newspaper "Welt am Sonntag" reported on Sunday that Brussels is "resistant" to Paris's initiative and that "most EU countries would oppose training in Ukraine."
For example, Germany, which Macron did not invite to join the coalition, is reportedly concerned that training in Ukraine would create a "risk of escalation and drag the West deeper into the war." Italy and Spain are also reportedly expressing similar concerns.
The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergei Lavrov, has already stated that Western instructors in Ukraine would be a "legitimate target" for Russia.
"I don't buy all these 'red lines' drawn by the Kremlin. Suppose, purely hypothetically, that there are soldiers from Poland in a training centre in Lviv. I wouldn't worry about an attack from Russia on such a location. Why? For a simple reason - Russia understands how escalation management works. And in the event of such an attack, it would be Russia that causes the escalation," says Matisek.
"Besides, regardless of which European forces are present in Ukraine, they will certainly have a strong anti-missile defence system. So there will be absolute certainty that there will be no accidental attacks," he adds.
Matisek does not rule out that Western soldiers might eventually end up on the front lines in Ukraine, but he points out that such a perspective is "very, very distant." When could this happen? "If Russia, despite warnings - as communication channels are open, behind-the-scenes talks are ongoing between the U.S. and Moscow, and warnings are being issued - started opening more fronts. That would make it easier for the West to decide."
When asked about the mistakes in the West's current strategy, Matisek emphasizes that "he wouldn't call it a mistake, but the West - especially Washington and Berlin - has long done what it could to avoid any escalation." "Of course, we can be pessimists and constantly assume that we are on the brink of World War III. But we would be allowing Putin to blackmail us. And we cannot view such important issues as peace and stability in Europe this way," he said.
He also stressed that he does not fear that the deployment of instructors in Ukraine will lead to escalation, because "every time Russia decides to take a step, it receives a response from the U.S." - A great example was recent - last month, the Russians opened a new front in the Kharkiv region. In response, the Americans allowed the Ukrainians to attack targets in Russia with American weapons," he said.
Joe Biden gave permission for attacks in Russia at the end of May. However, it applies only to targets "just across the border," as Russia attacks the Kharkiv region from these border regions.
War in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has been ongoing for nearly two years. When will it end? "I expect it to end within the next year or two," says Matisek.
"The tipping point may come when Russians from the cities get mobilised for the war." Not many residents of Moscow or St. Petersburg are going to war right now. If that changed, it could lead to a collapse in Russia," he adds.
He also mentions that the U.S. and European countries underestimated the threat from Russia for too long. In his opinion, only Poland and the Baltic states, countries closest to Russia, recognized the dangers.
"Europe was unprepared for what came. But Poland knew that the Russians would return to their imperial policies. About a year and a half ago, I visited an airbase in Poznań. Whenever I talk to Poles, they point out that Americans have considered Poles to be Russophobes for years. And now they can say: 'Didn't we tell you?'" he declared.
Advice for countries on NATO's eastern flank? "Now, the most important thing is deterrence. You need to invest heavily in weapons, systems, and training. Russia must know that you have a much better army, much better trained, and much more effective than theirs," Matisek stated.
