Ukrainian men defy conscription, seek refuge in Poland
The border guard is avoiding answering questions about the motivations of Ukrainians who, according to the latest data, are attempting to enter Poland illegally. This occurs even across the green border and with false documents. Experts suggest that these might be individuals fleeing mobilization and deserters.
In 2023, this phenomenon was almost non-existent. However, in a report for 2024, the Polish border guard notes that several hundred Ukrainians were detained while trying to illegally cross the border into Poland. It is important to remember that travel between Poland and Ukraine is visa-free. In 2024, there were approximately 8.5 million border crossings from Ukraine into Poland. A similar number of individuals crossed in the opposite direction as well.
Entry was denied to 13,600 Ukrainian citizens, according to the latest report from the SG. The statistics did not provide specific reasons for these refusals.
On the Polish-Ukrainian section last year, over 640 Ukrainian citizens were detained for illegally crossing the national border. The majority were detained at the border crossings, 470 at the border crossings and nearly 180 outside crossings. Most used false or fraudulently obtained documents, reported Lt. Col. Andrzej Juźwiak, spokesperson for the Chief of the Border Guard.
In 2023, 176 Ukrainian citizens attempted to illegally enter Poland.
Who are the desperate individuals trying to escape Ukraine illegally? The SG spokesperson did not directly answer questions regarding the motivation of these foreigners. We asked if Ukrainians risking crossing the green border could be individuals escaping mobilization.
- Each case is considered individually, and officers take actions appropriate to the incident - replied Lt. Col. Juźwiak.
Crisis in Ukraine's army. "They flee because there is no other option"
According to Prof. Daniel Boćkowski, a security expert at the University of Białystok, Ukrainians choosing illegal ways to leave the country are likely men escaping mobilization. Ukrainian authorities have prohibited men aged 25 to 60 from leaving the country without permission.
The expert comments that the chance of these men leaving Ukrainian territory normally is almost zero. Hence, they chose an illegal route.
Ukraine is facing a shortage of infantry, with allies stressing the lack of reserve personnel in the army. Western countries are pressuring Ukraine to lower the mobilization age while authorities are tightening control measures, effectively carrying out street round-ups for men. Describing the situation, the expert explains that many flee because they have no choice.
Professor Boćkowski notes that the Russian army continues to advance on the eastern Ukrainian front. Despite a five-to-one loss ratio in Russia’s favour, Ukrainian soldiers face the grim reality of trench warfare, where few are willing to be among those sacrificing themselves to repel attacks. As a result, the number of people fleeing to Poland, including deserters, is expected to rise. Meanwhile, he concludes that frustration and dissatisfaction with frontline command in Ukraine are growing.
We recently reported that President Donald Trump's National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, suggested that the lower age limit for conscription should be 18. According to him, this decision could help stabilize the frontline situation, as Ukraine struggles with significant personnel shortages.
Ukraine has Western weapons, equipment, and ammunition, but the problem becomes the declining number of people willing to fight for the country, warns Ukrainian experts. - This is the crux of the crisis, a social problem, and changing commanding generals on the frontline will not alter it - assessed Yevhen Dyky, a war veteran with Russia.
Who is fleeing Ukraine?
From the beginning of the war until the fall of 2023, nearly 20,000 men fled Ukraine to avoid conscription, and another 21,000 tried but were detained by border services, according to findings by the BBC and the Ukrainian portal TSN. The most popular escape routes were through Romania, Moldova, and Slovakia, with Poland only a later choice. Ukrainian politicians have commented that 95% of citizens are ready to defend the country against Russian aggression, meaning these escapes do not significantly impact defence.
14,300 Ukrainians tried to cross the border on foot or by swimming, while the remaining 6,800 relied on fraudulently obtained documents, such as fake exemptions from conscription, including fabricated illnesses - officials confirmed.
The country's authorities announced a crackdown on corruption within military qualification commissions, which had led to a tenfold increase in conscription exemptions. Those caught trying to escape face fines and up to eight years in prison. It is still unknown if military refugees will face penalties if they return in the future.
