Ukraine's Kursk offensive prompts Russian missile dilemma

According to analysts, the Ukrainian offensive towards the Kursk region of Russia may result in a response in the form of mass shelling targeting Ukraine. Kostiantyn Kryvolap, an expert associated with the aviation industry, discussed on the Ukrainian station Canal24 how many aircraft Russia has available and how many missiles it can launch.

To recap, the Ukrainian advance towards the Kursk region is progressing as planned, with Ukrainian forces occupying further areas of Russia. In response, the Russians are shelling their own country with, among others, powerful Iskander missiles, aiming to strike Ukrainian positions. However, this has not yielded results, prompting Moscow to request help from Belarus urgently. Belarus has agreed to the request and declared the transfer of military equipment still in service.

Western analysts suspect that Russia may retaliate by shelling Ukraine with hundreds of missiles and drones. However, Konstantym Krywołap tempers expectations and notes that the possibility of mass shelling must be carefully analysed.

“The Russians cannot physically send more than 500-550 Shahed drones within one month,” notes the expert. Regarding missiles, Kryvolap calculates how many aircraft are in Russia's arsenal for their transport. In his opinion, the Russians currently have 12-13 Tu-95 bombers, which means they can carry a maximum of 26 Kh-22 missiles (weighing nearly 6 tonnes) at a time. “Yes, that is the scheme; these missiles simply break the wings,” adds Krywołap and emphasizes that if Russia wants to do without Tu-95 aircraft, they will add 3-4 missiles.

There is also the Tu-22M3. There are 27 in total, but if we discount 30 percent, there will be about 18 machines that can launch the Kh-22 missile. I do not remember a single instance where the Russians managed to equip more than two such missiles,” said Krywołap. The expert mentions that he is not entirely sure whether Russia will decide to conduct mass shelling when it has "other matters" to deal with. He also notes that if Russia wants to hit a target, it uses Iskanders or Korean KN-23s.

Let us remind you that the Tu-95 planes mentioned by Kryvolap are machines from the 1980s that can carry armaments weighing up to 20 tonnes. The bomber is powered by four Kuznetsov NK-12 turboprop engines, which can accelerate it to a speed of 830 km/h. Its maximum range (without in-flight refuelling) reaches 10,500 km.

On the other hand, the Tu-22M3, the other bombers mentioned by the expert, are more modern units powered by two jet engines. They can reach a speed of 2,300 km/h, while the latest variant (designated "M3") can cover 7,000 km in a single flight. The aircraft can carry missiles and bombs with a total weight not exceeding 24 tonnes.