Russia faces critical 2025 deadline amidst escalating war pressures

According to experts from the American Institute for the Study of War, Russia aims to secure victory in the war with Ukraine before 2026. The Kremlin drew these conclusions following the speech of the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, as it expects a deterioration in the economic situation and problems with recruiting soldiers.

Russia aims to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine before 2026, before medium- and long-term economic constraints and issues with generating military power significantly reduce Russia's ability to conduct the war, claims the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW). It cites the words of the head of Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR), General Kyrylo Budanov.

Budanov states that the Kremlin believes 2025 will be crucial. On September 15th, during the Yalta European Strategy conference, he mentioned that if Russia does not secure victory by early 2026, it will undermine its aspirations to hold a global superpower status for the next 30 years.

Budanov estimates that the Russian authorities expect an economic and socio-political downturn by mid-2025, alongside growing problems with military recruitment. According to the ISW, Russia is having difficulties recruiting volunteers for the war against Ukraine despite significantly increasing the one-time payments for enlisting in the military (amounting to $11,000 and more).

The head of HUR believes that the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region and attacks on targets in Russia have a demoralizing effect on Russian citizens. In his view, Vladimir Putin will choose between announcing new mobilization, which would be politically risky, or reducing the intensity of actions in the war.

According to the ISW, the Russian dictator still remains reluctant to announce another wave of partial mobilization and will pressure the defence ministry to continue the ongoing covert mobilization.

The ISW assesses that "it is still unclear whether Putin will decide on another round of mobilisation if he experiences a crisis similar to the Ukrainian offensive (in the Kharkiv region) in autumn 2022."

Russia is likely to encounter increasing challenges in producing and supplying the war material needed for operations in Ukraine. The Kremlin will likely become increasingly dependent on foreign partners to meet its material needs, ISW experts predict.

General Budanov emphasized that from Ukraine's perspective, the critical significance lies in the supply of artillery shells from North Korea. They had a "direct and rapid impact" on the situation at the front. Unfortunately, as the Interfax-Ukraine agency informed, he stated that Ukraine cannot do anything about this for now.

Asked about the scale of support from Russia's allies (besides North Korea, mainly Iran and China), Budanov indicated that North Korea is first, then there is a long gap before any other country comes into play.