Putin's nuclear rhetoric: Escalating threats but no real shift
In a recent address, Vladimir Putin announced retaliatory measures against Ukraine for using weapons supplied by Western partners. Meanwhile, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has stated that World War III has started. However, analysts and experts assert that this does not imply that Russia will resort to nuclear weapons.
"A regional conflict in Ukraine previously provoked by the west has acquired elements of a global character," Putin said on Thursday evening. He added that long-range weapons cannot be used on Russian Federation territory without the help of specialists.
He was referring to the role of the USA in the operations conducted by Ukraine, during which ATACMS missiles were used to strike deep into Russia. Putin claimed that the United States "is pushing the world towards a global conflict." He assured that Russia's response to Western aggression was attacking Dnipro with a new medium-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Putin clearly hinted that Russia might attack Western countries supporting Ukraine's deep strikes against Russia and rhetorically linked the missile strike on November 21st with Russia's nuclear potential. This "marked intensification of an existing Russian information operation that aims to use explicit threats and nuclear sabre-rattling to discourage continued Western military support for Ukraine," analysts at ISW contend.
In their view, Putin's statement from November 21st shows that Moscow's consistent sabre-rattling remains largely rhetorical. "Putin's recent threats against the West have centred against Western states allowing Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes into "Russian territory," but Ukrainian forces have been striking what the Kremlin illegally defines as "Russian territory" for a long time," assesses the Institute for the Study of War. As it concludes, neither the missile attack on Dnipro nor Putin's statement from November 21st constitutes a significant change in Russia's attack capabilities or the likelihood of using nuclear weapons.
"A clear signal for Russia"
According to Dr. Maciej Milczanowski, a Polish expert on security and international politics from the University of Rzeszów, Putin's threats typically follow a similar pattern. "The Russian dictator first threatens with his most powerful assets and then uses what he can realistically apply, and what Moscow's allies within the informal group known as BRICS will accept. The Kremlin will deploy such a formula of weapon use on the front that will be acceptable to China or India. These countries will almost certainly not support the use of nuclear weapons, as it poses a long-term threat to them," says Milczanowski in an interview with WP.
He further notes that in response to Putin's revised nuclear doctrine, Beijing issued a statement calling for moderation, reason, and restraint.
"It was a clear signal for Russia that China will not accept the use of nuclear weapons. Furthermore, Moscow cannot afford to 'lose' an ally like Beijing," believes the security expert.
According to a source from Wirtualna Polska, Putin's address was directed not only at his citizens, the USA, and Western countries but also at Ukraine.
"He threatened that if Kyiv continues to rely on American support, it will pay with blood. The Russian dictator argued that the Americans are pursuing their interests in Ukraine in exchange for already spilled Ukrainian blood. He aims to use such rhetoric to find support among Ukrainian citizens connected by family ties to Russia or those who sympathize with Putin. In the informational chaos of wartime, such messages will be exploited by propagandists in Central and Eastern European countries," assesses Dr. Maciej Milczanowski.
In his assessment, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi's remarks about "ongoing World War III" referred to the escalation at the front and the involvement of North Korean soldiers on the Russian side.
"Conversely, Putin internationalizes this conflict by constantly threatening nuclear retaliation. He mentions, for instance, Poland, and notes that the base in Redzikowo is on the list of potential Kremlin attack targets," recalls Dr. Maciej Milczanowski.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who is currently an ambassador to the United Kingdom, believes it is no longer merely a war between Ukraine and Russia. He noted that North Korea has joined the fighting in the Kursk region, China supplies Russia with technology used in missiles, and Iran sells Shahed drones to Putin. "I believe that in 2024 we can absolutely believe that the Third World War has begun," the general claims.
