Ukraine's F‑16s: Learning curve amid limited impact
The delivery of F-16s was anticipated to alter the dynamics of the war in the Ukrainian skies, but there are too few to make a noticeable impact. However, their deployment is not merely for show. Ukrainian pilots are gaining valuable experience combatting a formidable enemy.
In early August 2024, during the Air Force Day celebrations, Volodymyr Zelensky proudly unveiled the first multi-role F-16s that had arrived in Ukraine. Ruben Brekelmans, the Dutch Minister of Defence, supported this event, calling it a "significant step forward," and Gitanas Nausėda, the President of Lithuania, referred to it as a "step toward victory." What was overlooked is that only a few F-16 fighters arrived, making the narrative of war-changing prospects overly optimistic.
The situation could have been different if allies had provided these aircraft to Kyiv several months earlier when Ukrainians were advocating for it. The Netherlands promised 42 planes, with the first arriving in October. Denmark plans to deliver 19 aircraft, the first of which are expected in Ukraine by the end of 2024. Belgium recently announced it would provide 30 planes, but their deliveries will be spread over several years.
The latest support promises have come from Norway, which is set to deliver 22 planes, 12 of which will be combat-ready, while the rest may serve as a source for spare parts.
The primary goal for F-16s: shifts and changes
The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Gen. Col. Oleksandr Syrsky, mentioned that the main task of the F-16s will be to shoot down Russian aircraft and missiles. However, since the Russians are preserving their limited strategic bombers and avoiding combat zones or even approaching the border, the F-16s are left to perform their secondary tasks.
The main goal of the new machines is, therefore, intercepting and shooting down X-101 cruise missiles, which are much easier to neutralize using aircraft than anti-aircraft artillery.
The greatest advantage of multi-role fighters is their high mobility, which makes them an important complement to other air defence systems. The British used a similar strategy in the past, creating the Air Defence of Great Britain. During German V-1 missile attacks, fighters belonging to ADGB effectively intercepted missiles that bypassed ground-based anti-aircraft systems. The operating principle has changed little since then; only the available technologies have evolved.
Early warning stations detect missiles launched from Russian Federation territory, and then controllers direct the F-16s to appropriate sectors where they begin hunting enemy missiles using onboard radar stations.
Sometimes, shooting isn't worth it
Detecting a cruise missile is just the beginning. It still needs to be precisely targeted and shot down. The obvious solution is to use air-to-air guided missiles. However, these are extremely expensive.
For example, a medium-range air-to-air guided missile AIM-120 AMRAAM costs around CAD 1,2 million. While the cost is justified when shooting down X-101s, costing around CAD 18 million, it would be uneconomical for unmanned Shahed 136 or Geran 2 – costing up to CAD 70,000. Moreover, Western allies haven't provided a significant number of AIM-120s.
The AGR-20 APKWS missile was developed for such tasks, based on Hydra-70 rockets – unguided rockets dating back to World War II. Over the years, dozens of different versions and variants of Hydra-70 have been produced. The infrared-guided version AGR-20 APKWS was added to the U.S. Navy's arsenal in 2012.
During modernization, the ammunition was equipped with a module containing laser sensors and movable control surfaces, allowing it to be guided toward the target. Unlike actively guided missiles, APKWS missiles do not require targeting before launch but instead rely on a semi-active laser guidance system activated after launch.
As a result, the U.S. Armed Forces obtained relatively inexpensive rockets, costing about CAD 41,000. More importantly, the missiles are carried in multi-guide launchers that hold 19 missiles each. An F-16 can carry up to four such launchers, which means it can take up to 76 missiles on a single mission. According to Ukrainian sources, planes usually carry half of that load.
Waiting for the super plane
Expanding the task range for F-16s will only be possible once the Swedish early warning and airspace control plane Saab 340 AEW&C Erieye, which Stockholm announced, arrives in Ukraine. The arrival of this aircraft – by increasing radar reconnaissance range – would enable Ukrainians not only to hunt cruise missiles but also their carriers.
The Ukrainian General Staff does not specify which means were used to shoot down enemy aerial threats. An exception was made for the F-16.
On the night of November 16th, out of 144 drones and cruise missiles launched at Ukraine, the F-16 shot down ten. Considering the scale of the air raid and the very small number of F-16s used, the outcome achieved by Ukrainian pilots is quite impressive. In terms of the ratio of shootdowns to machines used, the F-16s outperform the MiG-29.
Ukrainians are waiting for the delivery of more machines and, importantly, the completion of training for more pilots, which Ukraine critically lacks. Combat losses are quite significant, and training a new pilot takes several years. There are growing calls in Kyiv for hiring mercenary pilots. Kyiv may soon have no other choice.
At the beginning of the war, there were still fighter clashes, but this year the Russians have managed to shoot down only two Ukrainian aircraft in air combat. In May, Lt. Col. Daniel Vasyliuk was shot down in a Su-27, and the pilot perished. In August, Oleksander Migulia managed to eject from a MiG-29.
The small scale of aerial combat is due to a change in tactics. Fighters rarely venture near the front lines. The situation may change when Ukrainians receive more F-16s with long-range missiles, but this will take several months.
