Ukraine's bloody stalemate: Trump's impact on the horizon

"Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks like Ukraine’s worst nightmare," the article reads. The new U.S. president consistently avoids condemning Putin's invasion, "appears to admire the Russian dictator’s style of rule. He once tried to blackmail Ukraine by withholding military assistance."

However, despite these concerns, many high-ranking Ukrainian officials "were counting on Trump's victory, seeing it as an opportunity to change the situation." President Volodymyr Zelensky immediately congratulated Trump, expressing growing frustration with the Biden administration.

"Mr Trump’s victory, however, could offer Mr Zelensky a way out of what looks like a bloody deadlock at best, defeat at worst," writes The Economist.

Currently, Ukraine is critically assessing the American decision to refuse the use of long-range missiles on Russian territory. This is compounded by delays in military aid deliveries and the lack of solid security guarantees.

"During his election campaign, Mr Trump promised to end the war within 24 hours. Nobody—perhaps not even Mr Trump himself—knows what his peace plan actually consists of. For the moment, Ukrainian officials are working from two public formulations. The first, linked to Mr Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance, would see the conflict frozen on current lines and Ukraine forced into neutrality, with no obvious security guarantees or restraints on Mr Putin. A second plan, which Ukraine greatly prefers, was laid out by Mr Trump’s former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, in the Wall Street Journal. That focuses on enhanced military and financial support as a deterrent to Moscow, while also keeping open the prospect of membership of NATO,” the article reads.

The authors of the material believe that a "total sell-out of Ukraine by Mr Trump is unlikely, not least because of opinion within his own Republican base."

The change of power in the U.S. comes at a difficult moment for Ukraine. After a year of fighting, Ukraine recently suffered its largest territorial losses since 2022, losing about 620 square kilometres. Russia is accelerating the offensive, operating on many fronts.

It is likely that Ukraine will be forced to withdraw from strategic areas around the city of Kurakhove in the Donetsk region, which could open the way for the Russians to the "psychologically damaging entry into neighbouring Dnipro province by the end of the year."

The Economist writes, "trust between society, the army and the political leadership, Ukraine is struggling to replace battlefield losses with conscription, barely hitting two-thirds of its target."

Russia, on the other hand, replenishes its losses with contracts, with no need for mass mobilization.

Commanders admit that on the heaviest sections of the front, the morale of Ukrainian troops is collapsing. A source in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine admitted that "nearly a fifth of soldiers have gone AWOL from their positions."

The British newspaper believes the still-awaited deliveries of American weapons may give Ukraine time for further resistance, but financial and logistical pressures may affect Ukraine, possibly within six months.

Trump is likely to seek a peace deal before taking office, but Putin's stance remains an unknown variable, the article reads. Russian sources send mixed signals about whether Russia is ready to freeze the conflict or seeks the full capitulation of Ukraine.

Russia continues its pressure strategy, trying to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure, especially during the winter period. "They will try to do something," says former Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko, pointing to possible attempts on Ukraine's leadership.