Trump's peace deal risks emboldening Russia, experts warn
According to General Mike Elviss, commander of the British field army, Donald Trump's plan to negotiate a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia could provide the Kremlin with the opportunity to rebuild its military and collaborate with the "axis of aggressors," which includes China, Iran, and North Korea.
Speaking at the International Armoured Vehicles Conference in Farnborough, Elviss warned that once hostilities cease, a race to rebuild armoured forces will begin as nations prepare for future conflicts. "What is certain is that once the guns fall silent in Ukraine, there will be a Russian resurgence, reconstitution, and more collusion with a new axis of aggressors," he stated. He added that there will be a rush to "re-establish conventional deterrence in an era of strategic confrontation."
The general emphasized that by "conventional deterrence," he primarily means armoured forces.
The race between Russia and the West
High-ranking military officers in the UK's Ministry of Defence believe that after Trump's negotiation of a peace agreement, "a new race will unfold between Russia and the West to prepare their forces for the next conflict." Lieutenant General Sir Ralph Wooddisse, commander of NATO's rapid reaction corps, warned that Russia will be "whole lot better next time round," as its military continuously adapts to conducting operations.
He also added that Britain should not assume that Russia will engage with the same low effectiveness as it did in 2022 when it failed to conquer Ukraine.
Russians rebuilding their forces
Major General Matthew Van Wagenen, deputy chief of staff for operations and intelligence at NATO in Europe, stated that Russia is already rapidly rebuilding its armed forces and will likely return to its pre-2022 readiness level sooner than we think.
Van Wagenen warned that throughout the alliance, there is a shortage of armoured vehicles due to donations to Ukraine and underinvestment over the last 35 years. He emphasized the need to increase production to prepare for upcoming conflicts. When asked about the scale of the deficit, he replied that there is a large shortage.
The British army needs hundreds of vehicles, including armoured ones and auxiliary vehicles like Land Rovers or fuel tankers to support troops, in order to meet its NATO commitments.
According to Defence Procurement Minister Maria Eagle, approximately $8 billion CAD is currently being invested in equipping the army with 623 modern Boxer armoured vehicles and 148 Challenger 3 tanks, which are expected to enter service by 2030.
