Trump's gamble: Mediating in Russia-Ukraine conflict, eye on DPRK

Donald Trump mentioned ending the war between Russia and Ukraine around the third anniversary of the conflict's outbreak. To this end, he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin in Riyadh. What role, if any, will North Korea, whose soldiers were sent to the front lines, play in the negotiations? Dr. Nicolas Levi, an assistant professor at the Institute of Mediterranean and Oriental Cultures of the Polish Academy of Sciences, and author or co-author of nine books on North Korea, including "I Was a North Korean Diplomat," explains.

Marcin Lewicki: Does North Korea also hope that the war between Russia and Ukraine will end as soon as possible?

Dr. Nicolas Levi: Quite the opposite. North Korea aims for this conflict to last as long as possible. Thanks to its presence on the front lines, the regime receives financial support and sells weapons to Russian authorities. An advantage for North Korea is also that regime soldiers gain experience on the front. These are not just ordinary military personnel, but also officers of the Korean People's Army are present in Ukraine and the Kursk region. We know that even 10 high-ranking officers of the North Korean army may be stationed there permanently. For this reason, ending the conflict is not in North Korea's interest.

North Korea entered the conflict with a goal. It wanted to gain something. Will Kim Jong Un now try to leverage negotiations between the USA and Russia regarding the end of the war with Ukraine?

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia tightens the cooperation between the Kremlin and Pyongyang. It even enhances cooperation with Russian authorities, also on an economic level. The longer it lasts, the better for the regime financially and militarily. However, North Korea suffers a reputational loss. What can North Korea gain? A return to talks. At the moment, there are no direct talks between designated representatives of the USA and the Western world with North Korea. These talks ended during Joe Biden's presidency. Donald Trump might return to these talks if he ends the conflict in Ukraine. Not because he favours North Korean leaders but because he wants to prove he can negotiate.

However, apart from the fact that Pyongyang authorities will strive for talks with the USA, North Korea will not have a special role in these negotiations. The country is an executor, not an originator—solely playing on prolonging the conflict.

Will Trump become a world negotiator?

A lot is being said about Donald Trump. I agree that he is an unpredictable and not entirely respected leader. However, I believe that talks with Vladimir Putin or Kim Jong Un will allow the international situation to calm down. Look at the relations between North and South Korean authorities. If Donald Trump starts talking to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, relations between Kim Jong Un and the authorities in Seoul might calm down. The regime's actions calmed significantly during the last thaw during Trump's first term. Maybe it will be similar now.

What might future relations between Western countries and Russia with the North Korean regime look like after a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

We now know that North Korea can play a legitimate role on the international stage. It can become an actor—not direct, frontline, but indirect. It is capable of participating in conflicts on the international stage. However, we also know that the North Korean army does not send well-trained officers with experience to the front but rather people without qualifications. This affects North Korea's image.

As for the future, some countries might want to purchase North Korean weapons and military technology. The governments of such countries closely observe how these weapons perform, their effects, and destructive powers. Unfortunately for North Korea, the war in Ukraine serves as a showcase and a marketing operation.

Can Donald Trump try to involve North Korea in negotiation games? Will he want to raise the issue of this country at the negotiation table?

Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if this were the case. Everything depends on the opinion of President Trump's advisors and whether he listens to them. Much also depends on the chosen negotiation concept. The United States may have various ideas for ending the war, part of which might include a plan to deploy North Korean troops.

An example? In western Ukraine, peacekeeping forces composed of Western allies could be stationed, while in the east—forces from Russia, for instance, from North Korea. This plan is similar to the Korean War scenario, where, after 1953, forces of the Soviet and capitalist blocs were stationed on both sides of the divide. Today, however, it is difficult to predict what negotiation strategy the Trump camp will adopt.

Will Vladimir Putin want to use the presence of North Korean troops for the potential end of the war? Can he impose on Kim to send more soldiers to the front?

Much depends on how long this conflict will last. If it continues indefinitely, it's possible. In such a case, the presence of the Korean People's Army might be expanded. North Korean troops might be stationed on the demarcation line if the conflict ends. I don't see another role here.

Will the soldiers return to North Korea as if nothing happened?

There aren't many of them there anymore. It's known that a few thousand military personnel have already died. For instance, the army might be withdrawn to North Korea or could train in the Kursk region. It might be preparation for a potential renewed invasion of Ukraine.

Interview by Marcin Lewicki, journalist o2.pl