Tajikistan's economic lifeline: Migrant remittances and rising tensions
Mass labour migrations play a particularly significant economic, social, and political role in Tajikistan. One of the main destinations is Russia. Last year, 80% of remittances came from this country. Their trips have become regular, writes the Centre for Eastern Studies.
The terrorist attack in Russia at Crocus City Hall caused tensions between the Kremlin and the Republic of Tajikistan. Some members of the Islamic State of Khorasan were Tajik. As Marcin Popławski noted in the Centre for Eastern Studies' analysis, this has created uncertainty about the future of Tajik labour migrations.
As the Centre for Eastern Studies emphasizes, Russia remains one of the main destinations. Last year, 80% of remittances came from this country, and their trips have become regular.
Between 800,000 and 1.2 million residents of the 10-million-strong Tajikistan travel for work to large Russian cities mainly seasonally (three-quarters of the trips). The close socio-cultural ties with the Russian Federation are evidenced by the phenomenon of dual citizenship. From July 2019 to June 2023, 452,000 Tajiks were granted Russian passports, writes the analyst from the Centre for Eastern Studies.
According to the data cited by Marcin Popławski, from 2000 to 2022, migrant remittances averaged over 31% of the country's GDP. In 2022, they amounted to $5.3 billion (a jump from $2.9 billion in 2021), and in 2023, they reached a record $5.7 billion—nearly half of Tajikistan's GDP for the entire year.
"Thus, Tajikistan has become the country where the proportion of remittances to GDP is the highest globally. According to the World Bank, " in 2023, over 40% of households in Tajikistan were supported by migration income," points out the Centre for Eastern Studies analyst.
Key role for the economy
Labour migrations are also crucial for the growth of the country's GDP and the overall state of the Tajik economy.
As the expert notes, domestic consumption expenditures, fueled by the record influx of foreign transfers, were one of its main drivers in 2022-2023.
Foreign earnings also alleviate the country's low living standard and contribute to reducing extreme poverty.
As the Centre for Eastern Studies notes, despite the growing role of politico-economic cooperation in the Central Asian region, Russia and China remain Tajikistan's main international reference points.
