Secret files reveal Russia's nuclear threat deep into Europe

Russia has trained its navy to target nuclear missiles at locations deep within Europe in the event of a potential conflict with NATO, according to secret documents obtained and described on Tuesday by the British newspaper "Financial Times".

As the paper reports, 32 targets were detailed in a presentation for officers that took place before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These targets included those as distant as the western coast of France or Barrow-in-Furness, a town in northwestern England with a shipyard where British warships are built. However, the maps were prepared for presentation purposes, not operational ones.

"FT" recalls that earlier, based on the same set of 29 secret Russian military documents revealed by Western military sources, it reported that Moscow had practised the use of tactical nuclear weapons at the early stages of a conflict with a world power. The latest revelations show how Russia designed a conflict with the West reaching far beyond NATO's immediate border, planning a series of overwhelming strikes in Western Europe, it adds.

The documents, compiled between 2008 and 2014, include a list of targets for missiles that can carry either conventional warheads or tactical nuclear weapons. Russian officers emphasize the benefits of nuclear attacks at the early stage of conflict. The presentation also indicates that Russia has retained the capability to carry nuclear weapons on surface ships, which experts say entails significant additional risks of escalation or accidents.

The document notes that the "high manoeuvrability" of the Russian navy allows it to conduct "sudden and pre-emptive strikes" and "massive missile attacks from various directions". It adds that nuclear weapons are "usually" intended for use "in conjunction with other means of destruction" to achieve Russia's objectives.

Analysts cited by "FT" who reviewed the documents found them consistent with how NATO assessed the threat of long-range missile attacks from the Russian navy and the speed with which Russia would likely resort to using nuclear weapons. They added that if the Russian army engaged NATO forces in frontline countries like the Baltic states and Poland, targets across the continent would be at risk from Russia.

William Alberque, a former NATO official now working at the Stimson Center think tank, said that these 32 described facilities are a fraction of "hundreds if not thousands of targets mapped across Europe, including military and critical infrastructure targets."

Their concept of war is total war. They view (tactical nuclear warheads) as potentially war-winning weapons. They will want to use them and quite quickly," said Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, who studies arms control.

"FT" notes that tactical nuclear weapons, which can be delivered via missiles launched from land, sea, or aircraft, have a shorter range and are less destructive than larger "strategic" weapons designed to target the US, but can still release significantly more energy than the bombs dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945.

The newspaper also recalls that Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly resorted to threats against European allies of Ukraine to deter Western military support for Kyiv. "They must remember they are small, densely populated states," he said in May.

The presentation also mentions a so-called demonstrative strike - detonating a nuclear weapon in a remote area "during a period of direct aggression threat" before the actual conflict, to frighten Western countries. Russia has never admitted that such strikes are part of its doctrine. According to the files, such a strike would demonstrate the "availability and readiness to use precise non-strategic nuclear weapons" and "intent to use nuclear weapons".

The documents state that the main priority for Russia in a conflict with NATO is "weakening the enemy's military and economic potential". Analysts believe this means that Russia would target civilian objects and critical infrastructure, as has been the case in Ukraine.

Dara Massicot, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that Russian strategists partly view nuclear weapons as key in the early stages of conflict with NATO due to weaker conventional military resources. "They simply don't have enough missiles," she explained.

The documents also indicate that Russia retained the capability to carry tactical nuclear weapons on surface ships despite the 1991 agreement between the Soviet Union and the USA to remove them from such vessels.

Albergue assessed that it is astonishing, given the inherent dangers of carrying nuclear weapons at sea, even in peacetime. Unlike a strategic submarine with ballistic missiles designed to launch nuclear warheads from deep in the ocean, a surface fleet ship with nuclear warheads on board would be significantly more vulnerable to damage from storms or enemy strikes.

"FT" notes that recent maneuvers ordered by Putin to practice the use of tactical nuclear weapons indicate that the leaked documents are still consistent with the current Russian military doctrine.