Russia's vanishing carrier power: Su‑33 missions reveal decline
The presence of Su-33 aircraft over the Norwegian and Barents seas reveals more about the Russian navy's condition than the Kremlin might prefer. Although the Russians present these missions as a show of strength, they are, in fact, evidence that Moscow's great power ambitions are increasingly disconnected from reality.
Joint missions involving the Su-33, MiG-31, and strategic bombers Tu-95MS are depicted by pro-Moscow media as a showcase of strength. However, flights over the Norwegian or Barents seas, intercepted by NATO aircraft, indicate otherwise - Russia is misusing carrier-based aviation.
This suggests that Russian decision-makers might no longer harbour illusions about the future of Russia's only aircraft carrier. Even if the Admiral Kuznetsov ever leaves the repair shipyard, it will lack a capable air group because Russia's carrier-based aviation has ceased to exist.
Su-33 - Russian naval fighter
The Su-33 aircraft is derived from the Su-27 fighter, developed under the designation Su-27K. Compared to the original, it features modified engines and landing gear, a canard aerodynamic layout (with canards - additional control surfaces at the front of the fuselage), as well as enlarged and foldable wings.
These modifications were intended to adapt the aircraft for carrier-based operations, taking off and landing on an aircraft carrier.
Work on the Su-33/Su-27K conducted in the 1980s was part of a larger, ambitious program aimed at expanding the Soviet navy and transforming it from forces operating near its own shores into an ocean-going fleet capable of challenging the United States Navy.
Russian dreams of aircraft carriers
The USSR worked on a family of carrier-based aircraft for this purpose. Besides the Su-33, this included the MiG-29K, the two-seat training Su-25UTG, and the early warning aircraft Yak-44. A new vertical take-off and landing aircraft was also in development - after the challenges faced with the unsuccessful Yak-38, its much-improved successor Yak-141 was being developed.
Simultaneously, the construction of Project 1143.5 aircraft carriers - vessels Admiral Kuznetsov and Varyag - was funded. Alongside them, the design and the 1988 commencement of construction of the first aircraft carrier of Project 1143.7 began.
Ulyanovsk was to receive nuclear propulsion, making it only marginally smaller than the American Nimitz-class aircraft carriers, reflecting significant capabilities in the CATOBAR class. Preparations to lay the keel for the next ship of this type began concurrently with Ulyanovsk's construction.
For the development of carrier-based aviation, Russia also built the unique flight trainer Nitka in Crimea. At the Saki airbase, a significant installation in the form of a segment of an aircraft carrier deck was created on a runway. The deck was mounted on actuators that could move it, simulating the rocking of the ship's deck.
All these ambitious plans unraveled like a house of cards with the collapse of the USSR. Of the planned aircraft carriers, Russia completed only the Admiral Kuznetsov. The incomplete Varyag was sold to China, where it was completed as the aircraft carrier Liaoning. The construction of the Ulyanovsk, which was about 40% complete, was halted, and the vessel was scrapped.
The end of global ambitions
From the Kremlin's great-power plans, the MiG-29K aircraft project remained - this type of aircraft attracted interest from India, which created an air group for the aircraft carriers INS Vikramaditya (built from the Russian Admiral Gorshkov) and INS Vikrant.
The pride of the Russian fleet for years was the only aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov. Although impressive in appearance, it is worth noting that it is not a successful unit. Its operational capabilities, measured by the number of take-offs and landings achievable in a day, are many times lower than those of American aircraft carriers. Worse still, aircraft taking off from the Kuznetsov were either under-fuelled or under-armed - the lack of a catapult necessitated limiting the mass of launching planes.
The aircraft carrier itself - which, during deployments, smoked excessively like a 19th-century steamship - saw its period of not very intensive exploitation end with a Middle Eastern mission, rendering it fit only for repairs.
When it finally reached the repair shipyard in 2017, it began to face a series of problems - fires broke out, and the dry dock capable of servicing such a large unit was destroyed by incompetence. Concurrently, the Kremlin, treating the matter as a prestige issue, regularly assured that the Admiral Kuznetsov was returning to service, even though the return date was continuously postponed. Initially, this was expected to happen in 2022.
The decline of Russian carrier aviation
The interception of a Su-33 over the Barents Sea shows that current Russian declarations assuring that Admiral Kuznetsov will soon return to service are unreliable. Several reasons account for this.
The first is the lack of personnel. During the ship's lengthy restoration, its crew dispersed, and some sailors - after being transferred to mechanized infantry - were sent to Ukraine.
The second reason is that the only Russian aircraft carrier has been under repair for several years, and the pilots are either retired or have nowhere to train. The Nitka trainer, after the Russian attack on Ukraine, is within range of Ukrainian drones. Its condition is unknown, but - even if it functioned - it has not been used for training for years.
The third reason is the degradation of Kuznetsov's air group. If the aircraft carrier were to return to service, the pilots would require intensive training due to the long break. However, as noted by the Ukrainian service Defence Express, no such training is occurring.
Instead of refreshing lost skills involving carrier take-offs and landings, Russian pilots are serving as escorts for Tu-95 patrols. This depletes the increasingly limited resources of the few remaining carrier-based aircraft still serviceable - of the 35 (according to other sources, 48) Su-33s produced, currently, only 17 are fit to fly.
Kremlin without power projection capability
This illustrates that Russian carrier aviation, painstakingly built over time with significant resources, has practically ceased to exist. Even if - which seems unlikely - Admiral Kuznetsov does return to service, it will lack an air group: both aircraft and pilots will be insufficient.
India and China are building aircraft carriers, and Japan, for the first time since World War II, is reintroducing this class of vessels (albeit limited to vertical take-off and landing aircraft). South Korea also expresses an intention to build the CVX carrier.
Russia, once among the few countries with a classic aircraft carrier, is no longer a competitor in this area. The capability to project power, such as deploying an aircraft carrier with an air group to support the fragile rule of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, has become merely a memory for the Kremlin.
