Russia's covert operations in Europe likely to persist post-Ukraine
Estonian intelligence predicts that in 2025, Russia may continue sabotage activities in Europe, even if the war in Ukraine ends favourably for Moscow, according to a published report.
The report by the Foreign Intelligence Service (VLA) suggests that a direct military attack on Estonia in 2025 is unlikely. However, Russia's stance towards Tallinn remains hostile, and Moscow continues confronting the West. The Estonian intelligence report indicates it is likely that Russia may use "migration weaponry" as well as intimidation and sabotage against the Baltic countries.
The document also states that Russia still influences the local Russian minority in Estonia, attempting to deepen social divisions. Moscow also plans to increase military pressure by forming new divisions in the Moscow and Leningrad military districts.
The head of Estonian intelligence, Kaupo Rosin, notes that Russia has not abandoned its maximalist ambitions, including the demand for NATO to revert to its 1997 borders.
Ukraine a "lesson" for Putin?
"There is no reason to believe that Putin has abandoned his maximalist ambitions, including the demand for NATO's military presence to withdraw to its 1997 borders. Therefore, it is even more important for Ukraine's future and the free world's security for Ukraine to serve as a 'lesson' for Russia," stated the head of Estonian intelligence.
The report also assessed that the potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia against Ukraine is unlikely. The head of VLA stated that the war in Ukraine could have ended sooner if the West had realized that Russia's threats were a bluff.
