Kremlin's surprise release: Diplomatic chess with Trump envoy
The Kremlin has released American prisoner Marc Fogel, who spent over three years in a Russian prison for drug smuggling. According to the White House, this operation's success is a testament to the "goodwill" of the Russians. "This looks like a public relations gesture on Putin's part," Marcin Faliński, a former intelligence officer, tells WP.
It all started on Tuesday when Steve Witkoff's private plane—a known adviser to Donald Trump—was detected online, heading to Moscow. There was speculation that this visit might be related to negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. According to "The New York Times," Witkoff was reportedly authorized by the Trump administration to "open a diplomatic channel with Russia, which could be a first step in talks about ending the war in Ukraine."
Fox News reported on Wednesday that Donald Trump's adviser met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The conversation reportedly lasted three hours. The White House and the Kremlin declined to comment on the matter.
Witkoff's meeting with Putin also aimed at freeing Marc Fogel, who was sentenced to 14 years in prison in Russia. On Tuesday evening, reports emerged that the Russians had released the American prisoner.
High-security penal colony
Marc Fogel is a former employee of the U.S. embassy in Moscow. Before his arrest, he worked in the Russian capital as a teacher at an English-language school.
In August 2021, Russian security services accused him of using his diplomatic status to organize a drug supply channel to Russia. At the end of 2022, he began serving a 14-year prison sentence. Two years later, the outgoing administration of President Joe Biden stated that Fogel had been unlawfully detained.
The American teacher was placed in a high-security penal colony. Fogel has denied the charges from the start, claiming he had 17 grams (0.6 ounces) of medical marijuana, which was prescribed by a doctor for back pain.
Who did the Russians trade the American for?
Michael Waltz, Trump's national security adviser, stated that on the president's orders, Witkoff brought Fogel out of Russia by plane as part of an exchange. However, he did not reveal who the Russians received in return for the American prisoner.
Unofficially, there are discussions that, in exchange for Fogel, Russian authorities might have demanded the release of Alexander Vinnik, one of the executives of the cryptocurrency exchange BTC-e. The Russian was detained in 2017 under charges of complicity in extortion, identity theft, and drug trafficking. In May 2024, he admitted his guilt.
Trump was asked if the USA offered Russia anything in return for the teacher's release, and he responded, "not much."
According to Marcin Faliński, there may be more such prisoner swaps in the near future.
- Of course, the USA is talking to Russia. Unofficially, through intelligence services or diplomatic channels. This shows that, regardless of the war in Ukraine, communication channels are still functioning and doing well – Marcin Faliński, a former Intelligence Agency officer, tells WP.
"Such gestures will become more frequent"
In his assessment, this looks like a public relations gesture on Putin’s part.
- And such gestures will become more frequent. Putin graciously releases an American prisoner, and Trump will reciprocate in kind. Both sides will improve their image ahead of potential negotiations to end the war – Faliński believes.
He reminds us that contrary to appearances, communication channels between the USA and Russia operated even after the conflict in Ukraine broke out.
- They had to, even in matters of Russian nuclear threats. It was known that Kremlin's declarations were mainly PR-oriented and for internal use, but Washington closely monitors such issues – the interlocutor emphasizes to Wirtualna Polska.
As noted by "The New York Times," the visit by Witkoff—the Middle East envoy for Trump—to Moscow is the first disclosed trip by a high-level U.S. official since William J. Burns (CIA director under the Biden administration). Burns flew to the Russian capital in November 2021 to try to prevent the invasion of Ukraine.
"There is one but"
- In my opinion, Russia is becoming more war-weary, and at the same time, Russian business is pressuring the Kremlin. It wants to return to the state before the conflict. Moscow has no alternative; it must talk to Washington. Trump wants to offer Moscow an honourable exit from the conflict – Marcin Faliński assesses.
He believes Trump will want to end the war in Ukraine because he looks strategically at other goals in the world: Greenland, the Panama Canal, and also competition with China.
- This also includes resolving the issues of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and Hamas. He wants to use the fact that Russia has lost its influence in the Middle East. And it will not rebuild it quickly – claims the former intelligence officer.
Faliński points out another aspect.
- With gestures like releasing an American prisoner, Russia shows Trump's effectiveness. There is one but. Putin might stumble on this. The American president does not like and does not want to lose - reminds the former Intelligence Agency officer.
- He moves to a strategic level and wants to solve the problem of the war in Ukraine at all costs. And the Russians may, like American soldiers during the withdrawal from Afghanistan, encounter chaos and confusion – recalls the former Intelligence Agency officer.
Sylwester Ruszkiewicz, journalist of Wirtualna Polska
