Russia's blueprint for NATO flank: Buffer zone ambitions
A Finnish newspaper has obtained plans for Russia's possible attack on NATO's eastern flank. Putin intends to create a buffer zone in Finland and Norway. This scenario has reportedly been rehearsed during military manoeuvres.
Sources in NATO conveyed to the Finnish newspaper "Iltalehti" a scenario for Russia's attack on the Alliance's eastern flank. Russia plans to create a buffer zone in Finnish Lapland and Norway's Finnmark. According to the newspaper's information, the Russian army has already rehearsed this scenario during military manoeuvres. The plan would be implemented after the war in Ukraine concludes.
Plans for an attack in the north
According to the Kremlin's plan, in the north, the 14th Army Corps is to attack the Norwegian coast from Murmansk - simultaneously from the sea, land, and air. In Lapland, there will be a landing party, which will quickly take control of the Ivalo airport. Additionally, missile troops located on the Kola Peninsula are expected to enter Finland. It's estimated that "tens of thousands of Russian soldiers" would participate in the attack, according to sources in NATO.
Creating a buffer zone will allow for shifting military operations onto NATO territory and tying up Alliance forces. Sources also believe that Russia will use the 44th Army Corps to attack the southern coast and southeastern Finland to capture the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland. This would hinder defense support for Estonia from the Finnish direction.
Aiming for historical borders
NATO believes that Russia is aiming for the borders set by the Treaty of Turku from 1743. In such a case, its army will strive to reach the Kemijoki River, and the next target could be the Puumalansalmi Strait. Potential missiles could also be launched at Helsinki; however, the main direction of attacks will be the Baltic countries: Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
The newspaper's sources emphasize that Russian President Vladimir Putin's views on security reflect a desire to create a unified buffer zone in Europe from the Arctic region through the Baltic and Black Seas to the Mediterranean. During a propaganda press conference on December 19, the Kremlin chief stated that Russia has "sufficient forces and means to reclaim all its historical territories". In the past, Putin has referred to the Russian Empire of the 17th century as his ideal. NATO sources say these words should be taken literally.
NATO exercises
In March 2023, NATO rehearsed the deployment of 20,000 soldiers in northern Norway and Finnish Lapland. Earlier this year, the Alliance conducted large-scale exercises near Russia's borders. Last month, the largest NATO artillery exercises called Lightning Strike began in Finland.
In December, Finland's Defence Minister Antti Häkkänen announced plans to nearly double military spending by 2032 to 3.3% of GDP, significantly exceeding NATO's designated goal of 2%. "The security situation in Finland and the region is difficult to predict. It may deteriorate rapidly. Large investments in defence and national security are necessary to increase our capacity to withstand military pressure and carry out potential long-term wars that could extend over years," emphasized Häkkänen.
