Russian advances in Kursk complicate Ukraine's peace strategy
The Russians have cut into areas occupied by Ukrainians in the Kursk region. Thus, Putin's troops have reclaimed at least three villages. The retreat of Ukrainian forces means a loss of leverage for potential peace negotiations with Moscow, according to "The New York Times."
"Overall, the situation in the Kursk region (Russia) is not the best," assessed military analysts from the Ukrainian war mapping project Deepstate, as quoted by the American newspaper. In their view, Ukrainian forces are "taking stabilization actions, but regaining what was lost is extremely difficult."
According to military analyst Emil Kastehelmi from the Finnish group Black Bird Group, some Russian units have "managed to penetrate relatively deep (into positions located) behind the Ukrainian army." Experts report that Ukraine currently controls about 780 square kilometres of Russian territory. This represents a loss of about 25 percent of the territory compared to the situation in August when the Ukrainian military launched an offensive in the Kursk region.
"The New York Times" reminded that this offensive had two main objectives: "to force the Kremlin to redirect troops from other front sections to respond to the attack, which would reduce pressure on Ukrainian forces, and to seize territory that Moscow would want to reclaim, potentially forcing it to negotiate."
The Russians have started a race against time
Last week, the Washington think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that the intensity of Russian attacks in the Kursk region is related to the upcoming change in weather, which will prevent the use of heavy equipment.
Ukraine will be able to maintain its positions for "a few months or even longer," because Russian forces face logistical problems and disorganization of the command structure, said a senior U.S. military official, speaking to "NYT" in early October on the condition of anonymity.
"Ukraine may hope to use the territory it controls in the Kursk region as a bargaining chip in (potential) peace negotiations to exchange for territories occupied by Russia in Ukraine. However, Moscow has not signaled a willingness to engage in talks as long as it has an advantage on the battlefield," it reads.
