Russia to revise nuclear doctrine amid Western pressure on Ukraine

Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has repeatedly threatened the use of nuclear weapons. However, these threats have not deterred the West from aiding Ukraine. They also have not stopped Ukraine from launching an offensive in the Kursk region. Now, Russia intends to change its nuclear doctrine, which means revising the rules regarding the use of nuclear weapons.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, cited on Sunday by Russian state media, stated that the Kremlin will change its nuclear doctrine in response to the alleged “intensification of the course by Western adversaries” on the issue of Ukraine.

Reuters reports that the current doctrine, decreed in 2020 by Vladimir Putin, anticipates the use of nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear or conventional attack if it threatens the existence of the Russian state.

However, in June, Putin announced that the doctrine could be changed. According to Reuters, nationalist commentators advocated lowering the criteria for the use of nuclear weapons to “sober up” Russia’s Western enemies. This news agency also notes that Ryabkov’s statement is the newest and most explicit signal that changes will indeed be implemented.

The deputy head of Russian diplomacy warns that the work is already advanced and that amendments are clearly in the pipeline.

Putin has repeatedly threatened the West with the use of nuclear weapons since launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He also announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

These threats notes Reuters, have not deterred the U.S. or its allies from increasing military assistance to Ukraine to levels that would have been unimaginable before the outbreak of this war, including providing tanks, long-range missiles, and F-16 fighter jets.

They have also not, as noted by "The Wall Street Journal," deterred Ukraine from attacking Russia. "WSJ" points out that for decades, nuclear escalation theory held that countries possessing atomic weapons were largely immune to attacks because an aggressor risked causing Armageddon.

Meanwhile, although Ukraine occupied a piece of Russian land, neither side seems to consider the Kursk region strategically important, so Ukraine's attack, however embarrassing for the Kremlin, shows no signs of crossing Russia's red line.

Nikolai Sokov, a former Soviet and Russian arms control negotiator, in an interview with "WSJ," explained that no one knows Russia’s red line - they’ve never specified it, adding that they may find out later that we crossed the red line two months ago.

According to Sokov, the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin seem to consider threats to their regime as sovereign threats to Russia. From this perspective, significant Ukrainian gains or Russian losses could trigger nuclear escalation, though it would probably start with more frequent use of conventional weapons rather than a nuclear attack.

The "WSJ" further explains that Ukraine wants to show with its attack on the Kursk region that another taboo can be broken without tragic consequences. Part of this goal is to convince the White House that Ukraine should be allowed to use more lethal and precise U.S. weapons to attack Russia. However, many Western officials remain cautious, especially in Washington and Berlin, because Putin is unpredictable.

Nuclear strategies and defining the opponent’s red lines remain a high-stakes game, notes "WSJ."

Christopher Chivvis, an expert from the American think tank RAND Corporation who has assessed nuclear risk, describes it as like walking in the dark toward a cliff—they know it’s out there somewhere, but they don’t know exactly where.