Russia contemplates new draft with losses soaring on Ukraine front

In Russia, the shortage of soldiers is deepening after Ukrainian forces started an offensive on its territory. This prompts Moscow to increase rewards for volunteers, Bloomberg reported. According to experts, Putin needs 500,000 people. Another mobilization is possible.

The deepening shortage of soldiers to fight in Ukraine prompts Russia to increase rewards for recruits to avoid an unpopular mobilization. So far, there are no signs that this is effective, reports the agency.

According to Bloomberg, the army is not acquiring enough new soldiers to compensate for the losses on the front, which are currently the highest since the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022.

A person familiar with the situation told Bloomberg that regional officials are meeting on average just under two-thirds of their recruitment target.

Two interlocutors told the agency that Russia may consider another mobilization as a result. According to one of them, this could be presented as a rotation to relieve soldiers fighting on the front. According to another, the new draft could be announced as early as the end of this year.

The inability of Russia to repel the Ukrainian offensive, ongoing since August 6, has highlighted the lack of reserves in the Russian army, Bloomberg writes.

Moscow has hundreds of thousands of troops on the frontline in eastern and southern Ukraine where it faces mounting casualties with fighting largely at a stalemate. President Vladimir Putin ordered a mobilization of 300,000 reservists in September 2022, prompting a spike in anxiety about the war among Russians and an exodus of as many as a million people from the country. Anxious to avoid a repeat of that experience, the Kremlin has focused on appeals to patriotism and offers of cash to try to secure the 30,000 new soldiers it needs each month just to replenish the ranks, the report reads.

For this reason, Bloomberg emphasizes, the Kremlin has radically increased the pay for recruits from federal and regional authorities. The pressure is so high that richer provinces attract men from poorer regions with higher rewards.

The scale of Russian losses and the insufficient replenishment level increasingly hinder maintaining the current strategy of slowly working out new gains in Ukraine. Bloomberg reports, citing a person familiar with the situation, that there is no longer talk of conquering Kyiv and other cities because Russia lacks soldiers.

In July, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin promised CAD 37,000 to volunteers who sign military contracts, in addition to CAD 10,900 annually, paid in monthly installments by the city authorities, and bonuses offered by the defence ministry.

In total, according to the Moscow mayor, new recruits can receive CAD 94,000 in their first year of service, if they survive. This is roughly three times the average salary in Moscow.

Putin also instructed the government to double the federal reward paid to new recruits to CAD 7,100 by the end of the year and called on provinces to allocate similar amounts. Some regions are turning to Moscow for grants as they cannot meet this demand - said an official familiar with the situation.

According to Bloomberg economist Alex Isakov, Putin needs about 500,000 people over the next 12 months to replace personnel losses and rotate soldiers in Ukraine.

He believes Russia's current recruitment strategy, which involves paying volunteers high wages, is not sufficient, and the government will have to start focusing on conscription.

Russian authorities do not disclose the extent of their losses in Ukraine. Western estimates suggest that Russia may have lost up to 500,000 soldiers in this war. According to the British Ministry of Defence, the last three months have brought Russia the most losses - in May, an average of 1,262 Russian soldiers died daily.