Rising threat: Russia's military buildup tests NATO resolve
The war in Ukraine involves the Russian army, but the Kremlin is trying to rebuild its military capabilities. Although intelligence reports do not confirm that Moscow has decided to attack NATO, Russia is working to regain its capability to conduct such operations. At the same time, according to Danish intelligence, Putin might start a new war in Europe, but only if the Alliance shows signs of weakness.
Currently, there is no immediate threat of a Russian attack, but the risk is expected to increase over the coming years. If the Kremlin perceives NATO as weak, Russia could be prepared to initiate a large-scale war in Europe within five years—this is a key finding from the DDIS report (Danish Defence Intelligence Service) released by the Danish authorities.
The release of these intelligence assessments comes at a pivotal moment. Soon, it will mark the third year of the full-scale war in Ukraine (the conflict itself has lasted longer—it's worth noting that Russia has been attacking Ukraine for 11 years). The anniversary of the Russian aggression is accompanied by geopolitical unrest stirred by Donald Trump's declarations and the activities of the new American administration.
In this context, Danish intelligence outlines three scenarios of Russian aggression, which are not based on Russia's defeat in Ukraine but on some form of cessation or freezing of hostilities:
- Six months after the cessation of hostilities, Russia could attack one of its neighbours.
- Two years after the cessation of hostilities, Russia could start a regional war in the Baltic Sea area against several countries simultaneously.
- Within five years after the cessation of hostilities, Russia could rebuild its capacity to launch a full-scale attack on Europe.
Russian industrial potential
Russia's need to rebuild its offensive capabilities is due to significant losses suffered in Ukraine. Even if the number of 10,000 destroyed Russian tanks cited by Kyiv is exaggerated, the destruction of thousands of armoured vehicles has forced the Kremlin to empty mobilization warehouses, which stored equipment dating back to the Cold War.
The Russian air force is in a more challenging position, as it is gradually degrading. Moscow not only produces too few aircraft to replace current losses but also depletes its operational machines without prospects for replacement. Due to the absence of new aircraft and future-oriented designs, the weakening of Russian military aviation is expected to continue.
At the same time, it is worth noting that the frequent forecasts throughout the quarters of the war about a crisis in the Russian industry and the rapid depletion of Russian stocks of tanks, ammunition, or ballistic missiles have proven inaccurate.
Although the current production rates and the pace of restoring the operational readiness of stored equipment do not cover the losses incurred, the Russian economy, switched to war mode and supported by China in building production capacities, provides weapons in quantities unexpected before the conflict began. This is accompanied by deliveries of weapons and ammunition from countries such as Iran and North Korea.
Expansion of the training system
Furthermore, Russia has rebuilt its training system—the waves of "mobiks," sent in 2022 to fight without training and proper equipment, are now a distant memory. According to experts, including Col. Piotr Lewandowski, the average Russian soldier sent to battle is better trained than the Ukrainian soldier.
Moreover, the war in Ukraine is being conducted by Russia without resorting to conscription—volunteers, attracted by very high remuneration, are reaching the front lines.
The biggest threat to NATO is inaction
The Russian threat has prompted a response—countries on NATO's eastern flank and new members of the Alliance are expanding their military capabilities. While industrial capabilities remain a weak point, the situation in this area is gradually improving.
President Trump's declarations do not necessarily signal a withdrawal of the United States from defending Europe but rather an attempt to push European members of the Alliance to collectively increase defence spending.
Conflict of interest in the Arctic
In this context, an important aspect of the Danish report is the issue of the Arctic and Russia's efforts to maintain dominance in the far north. From Moscow's point of view, this is an area of critical importance, both economically (resources and marine trade routes) and strategically.
The climate change means that the Arctic—until now a safe haven for Russian boomers (nuclear submarines with intercontinental missiles)—is becoming navigable for longer periods each year, making it accessible to naval forces of potential adversaries. This poses a serious challenge for Moscow, as currently, all Arctic countries—except Russia—are members of NATO.
The Arctic balance of power could, however, be altered by China's involvement, which has officially declared itself a "near-Arctic country" and—building a fleet of icebreakers—intends to defend its interests in the far north.
Conclusions for NATO
In the context of these warnings, the Danish report serves as a cautionary note and indicates actions that, if neglected, could lead to another war in Europe.
Besides the timelines, the report outlines the conditions under which a Russian attack could be initiated. The first is the lack of engagement from the United States. The second is NATO's lack of response to Russian militarization.
The conclusions are clear: Russia will attack only if NATO is weak and fails to bolster its military potential, and if political divisions within the Alliance lead to the withdrawal of the United States from Europe. It is a particularly clear directive for NATO countries on the steps needed to prevent Russia from launching another attack in the future.
