Putin's strategic chessboard: Ukraine, NATO, and the Kaliningrad dilemma

What is Putin's plan? Experts assess that the Kremlin might decide on a rapid operation to create a bridge to Kaliningrad, stating that all possibilities for the situation's development should be considered in analyses.

"I can't imagine that Vladimir Putin would seriously consider a full-scale war against NATO," said Gen. Stanisław Koziej in an interview with a Polish newspaper, Wprost. He assessed that Russia could only win against Ukraine if it successfully intimidated and blackmailed the West into not helping Kyiv.

According to Koziej, Vladimir Putin will not seek to unleash a full-scale war with NATO.

"However, this does not exclude that in the future he may make further attempts to forcibly detach pieces of territory from other countries" - it reads.

The former head of the National Security Bureau said that "the Kremlin could, after renewing its forces, think about another target, especially in the Baltic Sea region, e.g., creating a bridge to Kaliningrad."

Russia is concentrating over 500,000 soldiers on the border and in the occupied territories of Ukraine; various units, including subunits of the Rosguard and FSB, are there - Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) representative Andriy Yusov informed on Thursday.

Yusov said that the information about the concentration of over 500,000 is not new. This state has been maintained for several months. The concentration includes various units, including the so-called Rosguard and FSB units, and special services sent to the occupied territories to control events.

Earlier, media cited HUR that the Russians had concentrated 550,000 soldiers in Ukraine and on the border.

In Wednesday's report, the Chief Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported that the situation on all fronts remains quite tricky as the enemy is conducting offensive operations to extend the active front line, limit the mobility of Ukrainian troops, and prevent their transfer to other areas of combat. Overall, the situation remains challenging due to the high intensity of combat operations, the widespread use of armored vehicles, and a significant number of guided aerial bombs by the enemy.