Putin shifts strategy: Economic might to spearhead military effort

Vladimir Putin, after 12 years, removed Sergey Shoigu from his position as the head of the Ministry of Defense, with Andrey Belousov, a civilian, set to replace him. "The Russian president is dissatisfied with the handling of his two-year invasion of Ukraine," writes "Financial Times".

Vladimir Putin, who extended his rule until at least 2030 earlier in the week, moved Sergey Shoigu, the Minister of Defense since 2012, to lead the Russian Security Council on Sunday.

"Putin’s appointments mark the biggest shake-up of his security officials in a decade and a half, even as his forces continue to advance against Ukraine’s outmanned, outgunned army," writes "Financial Times".

According to the analysis, "Shoigu had previously been seen as a near-untouchable figure thanks to his closeness to Putin — with whom he has holidayed several times in Tuva, his home region in Siberia — and for his success in seeing off the challenge from a mutiny by mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin."

The British newspaper notes that Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov (Chief of the General Staff) "continued to arouse widespread anger among supporters of the war over the military’s many battlefield failures."

Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment who studies the Russian army, said that these shocks showed that "clear that Russian economic elites performed far better than military elites in this war".

The nomination of Belousov means that Gerasimov will ultimately be replaced as well. Shoigu was incompetent but loyal. The same can be said about Gerasimov. In the past, Chiefs of the General Staff were replaced by the Minister of National Defence. Although Peskov said that Gerasimov would remain, Belousov will likely want to employ his person there, added Kofman.

"The New York Times" reports that Putin removed a military man from office, who Russian pro-war commentators and Western analysts considered partly responsible for numerous Russian failures at the start of the invasion.

By appointing an economist, he silently affirmed the importance of industrial power for every military victory.

"NYT" also recalls the famous mutiny of the Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who sought to unseat Shoigu with a "march on Moscow".

The American newspaper warns that with these changes, Putin wants to signal greater readiness to introduce changes and show that Russia has the discipline and economic potential necessary for a long war.

"Shoigu was 'too big to fail'," wrote Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. However, he noted that in his new role, Shoigu will be "without real command powers and without a cash box".

Shoigu was the longest-serving Minister in the history of the Russian Federation and a constant presence in Russian politics since the fall of the Soviet Union.

"Politico" writes that Belousov, a veteran economic advisor, 's appointment to the highest defense position is seen as a signal that "Putin is looking to switch gears, more than two years into the war against Ukraine and just short of a year after a failed mutiny by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin."

"This move allows Putin to keep Shoigu on side, while bringing in someone who may be able to deal with the impact of corruption across the Russian Ministry of Defense," said Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence colonel and NATO planner.

Commenting on Shoigu's departure, British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps noted that the long-serving official's legacy includes "overseen over 355,000 casualties amongst his own soldiers and mass civilian suffering with an illegal campaign in Ukraine".

"The appointment of Belousov, a civilian official known for his economic decision-making rather than battlefield knowledge, is the biggest surprise. The change is also likely to be seen by an attempt by Putin to subject defence spending to greater scrutiny to ensure funds are effectively spent after a Shoigu ally and deputy defence minister was accused by state prosecutors of taking a bribe," writes the France24 portal.

"The Guardian" remarks that over the last two years, Russia has significantly ramped up military industrial production, with total defense spending increasing to an estimated 7.5 percent of GDP.

A former defense official who worked with Shoigu, speaking to "The Guardian" anonymously, said the Kremlin wants the ministry run by an economist who can enhance its efficiency. "The defence ministry is supposed to be efficient and well run, while the actual decisions on the battlefield are left to the military," he added.

"Al Jazeera" notes that these reshuffles occurred as thousands of Ukrainian civilians fled the renewed Russian ground offensive in the Kharkiv region in the northeast of Ukraine.

Reuters notes that Belousov, the former Minister of Economy known for his very close relations with Putin, "shares the Russian leader's vision of rebuilding a strong state, and has also worked with Putin's top technocrats who want greater innovation and are open to new ideas". Belousov is credited with major success in the Russian drone program.

Reuters writes that the shocks that surprised the elites indicate that Putin is doubling down on the war effort in Ukraine and wants to use the Russian economy more for its needs. This coincides with the failed attempt to cripple the Russian economy with Western sanctions, which so far have proven ineffective.

Associated Press adds that Shoigu is widely seen as a key figure who contributed to Putin's decision to send Russian troops to Ukraine.

"Russia had expected the operation to quickly overwhelm Ukraine’s much smaller and less-equipped army and for Ukrainians to broadly welcome Russian troops. Instead, the conflict galvanized Ukraine to mount an intense defense, dealing the Russian army humiliating blows, including the retreat from an attempt to take the capital, Kyiv, and a counteroffensive that drove Moscow’s forces out of the Kharkiv region."