Pentagon's costly air dominance program faces major cuts

Elon Musk, as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), was appointed by Donald Trump to conduct an audit at the Pentagon. His goal is to identify potential abuses and waste of funds, which could be worth billions of dollars. The Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the matter, reports that this information has spurred many units to prepare lists of armament programs that have long been planned for cancellation. The Pentagon has yet to comment on these reports.

Possible cuts are stirring many conflicting emotions. Their proponents believe they are necessary to improve the efficiency of the American defence industry. Their opponents argue that excessive cost reductions and budget cuts (currently totalling $850 billion) could weaken the combat readiness of the USA and negatively impact America's current and future military strategy, which, in the face of growing security challenges, including the rapidly rising military power of China, should be an unwavering foundation.

Although detailed information about specific military programs that may be affected by reductions has not yet been disclosed, analysts predict that ambitious and costly projects, such as the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter program, may come under scrutiny. This is especially true since the NGAD program, aimed at developing an advanced sixth-generation fighter, is one of the Pentagon's most expensive endeavours.

It's worth recalling that Joe Biden's administration requested $2.75 (CAD 3.9) billion for NGAD research and development in the fiscal year 2025. Simultaneously, it was estimated that funding for this program could increase to $5.72 (CAD 8.11) billion by 2029. The development of these aircraft is not the only financial challenge. The unit cost of the NGAD aircraft is also unfavourable. In 2024, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) determined that it could cost as much as $300 (CAD 426) million, which is more than three times the cost of a fifth-generation F-35A Lightning II fighter.

Such high costs raise concerns about the feasibility and scale of production of these machines. In response to these challenges, in the summer of 2024, the then-US Air Force Secretary, Frank Kendall, decided to temporarily suspend the NGAD program to reassess its scope, costs, and strategic requirements. The decision aimed to identify more cost-effective solutions that would allow the US to maintain air superiority in the face of dynamically changing threats.

According to Defence Industry Europe, senior American officials are increasingly questioning the original vision of the NGAD program. Currently, various other options are being considered, including the integration of NGAD with unmanned systems and modifications in range and engine configuration to lower costs without compromising combat capabilities.

Currently, many countries are developing their programs aimed at creating sixth-generation fighters. The United States is working on the aforementioned Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program. In Europe, two initiatives are being developed - France, Germany, and Spain are collaborating on the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) project, while the United Kingdom, Italy, and Sweden are developing the Tempest program.

China is also participating in the race for sixth-generation fighters. Beijing reveals little about its program and its progress. However, it's worth recalling that in December 2024, footage emerged showing two new Chinese aircraft with features suggesting they belong to this class. However, China has not officially confirmed the possession of such machines.