Iran's missile stockpile: A hidden arsenal poised for conflict

The conflict in the Middle East is escalating, as evidenced by a massive attack launched by Iran on Israel on Tuesday. There are claims in public opinion that Tehran's resources might quickly run out. We confronted this opinion in a conversation with Marcin Krzyżanowski, a lecturer at Jagiellonian University and a specialist in Iranian politics and economics.

Up to 200 rockets in a single attack—this is the tally of the strike that Iran launched towards Israel in early October. Such a massive barrage raises the question of whether Tehran has a sufficiently large stockpile of missiles to frequently strike its opponent or if a single massive strike significantly depletes its storage.

Iran expert Marcin Krzyżanowski explained in an interview with Wirtualna Polska what Tehran’s arsenal really looks like. "Iran has a very large missile arsenal, consisting of various types of missiles. Exact estimates are not known, as the matter is highly secretive. However, experts estimate that it is at least tens of thousands of missiles," the expert points out.

Therefore, Tehran has a substantial stockpile of weapons to use for subsequent attacks. Where does this weaponry come from? To a large extent, it is a result of the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, when Iranians—as Krzyżanowski claims—"painfully realized how effective and relatively inexpensive missile weaponry can be". Consequently, Tehran has been developing its missile program for decades. "Iran has been accumulating weapons over the years and developing its production capabilities," the Iran expert explains.

The expert emphasizes that Israel's adversary still has much in reserve. "Iran did not attack with full force. It was a show of strength and capabilities, especially accuracy," Krzyżanowski explained. He also noted that in the latest attack on Israel, the use of modern Fateh-1 and Fateh-2 missiles by Tehran is noteworthy. "[Iranians - ed.] can boast a very large number of missiles and drones. Their advantage is that they can cause disruption. Additionally, they have advanced missiles, which Iran itself refers to as hypersonic," our conversation partner highlights.

Although Tehran’s arsenal includes much older equipment, it does not fall behind Western standards of modern weaponry. Krzyżanowski emphasizes that while the missile launchers themselves "lag behind," combined with Iranian missiles, it is equipment that poses a significant threat.

We also asked the expert whether the "spreading" conflict in the Middle East affects the war in Ukraine—especially in light of recent reports about Tehran transferring hundreds of missiles to the Russian Federation (and continuously supporting the army with drones). "This has very little connection," the expert commented. "Iran can afford to continue supporting Russia," he added. However, the situation in the Middle East distracts the Americans, because—as our conversation partner points out—"every additional dollar spent in the East is a dollar that might be lacking in Ukraine."

Let's add that the weapon mentioned by Krzyżanowski, i.e., the Fateh-1 missile, is a medium-range hypersonic ballistic missile first showcased in 2023. Iran claims it is a highly manoeuvrable and fast weapon, allowing it to evade anti-missile defence systems. The warhead mass of Fateh-1 is said to reach even 454 kg, while the missile's range is approximately 1,400 km. The maximum speed—although not confirmed—exceeds even Mach 10 (over 12,000 km/h).