Expired munitions raise doubts over Ukraine's ATACMS arsenal

The findings from the Bulgarian service Obektivno suggest that the "expiry date" of some older ATACMS missiles meant for Ukraine had already passed in 2015. In January of this year, Newsweek also highlighted this, writing about the oldest versions of these missiles, the M39 and M39A1. These were produced in the 1990s and were gradually phased out in favour of newer models over time.

Gen. Ben Hodges, who served as the commanding general of the U.S. Army in Europe, argued at the time that there were no concerns regarding the expiry date of these missiles. "All weapons are eventually replaced by better, more lethal, more cost-effective weapons," he stated in an interview with Newsweek. He also suggested that these missiles could be significant for the operations conducted by the Ukrainians.

Currently, following authorization by U.S. President Joe Biden's administration for the use of American weapons to hit targets deep within Russia, ATACMS could be used by Ukrainians to conduct attacks on airports, supply points, or warehouses located on Russian territory. These are sites that play a critical role during ongoing military operations, and ATACMS missiles—depending on the version—can strike targets located even 300 kilometres away.

In a conversation with WP Tech, Gen. Tomasz Drewniak, a former Inspector of the Polish Air Force, pointed out how one might view the "expiry date" of missiles and their subsequent usefulness for military purposes.

"First of all, it's important to remember that a missile consists of several elements, and many factors influence its combat usefulness. Clearly determining whether a missile is 'expired' requires extensive knowledge. For example, there are several ways of storing missiles. If a missile is kept in a container, in a place with appropriate humidity, temperature, etc., it can be useful for up to 20 years. If such a missile is taken out of the container, it may lose its usefulness within a year," he said.

According to the military expert, in the case of ATACMS for Ukraine, it is difficult to take a definitive stance without deeper knowledge. "We do not know how the missiles were stored, under what conditions, or what might have expired in them—whether the rocket motor or the navigation systems. Therefore, I would not look for sensationalism here," added Gen. Tomasz Drewniak.

"In Poland, we also keep expired missiles. This is a standard procedure worldwide. It just has to be clearly stated that these are missiles we use, for example, during training exercises at Ustka. We do not use them in combat. Another important issue is the procedures for checking such missiles. In our country, this task is handled by the Institute of Aviation Technical Troops. For example, anti-aircraft missiles whose service lives are nearing the end, or—because sometimes it happens—are beyond their service life, are sent there," the military expert emphasized.

The expert also explained what poor storage of missiles might entail in practice, such as not ensuring proper humidity. If, in such a situation, the rocket motor gets wet, one can expect that the missile will have completely different flight parameters from those assumed as the norm.