Possible Russian threat to Estonia raises NATO concerns
According to former Finnish military intelligence chief Pekka Toveri, Russia's threats do not include hybrid attacks alone. The expert also warns of a possible Russian attack on Narva, a border town in Estonia.
A book titled "On the War in Ukraine" was released on Thursday. In it, Pekka Toveri, who was director of the military intelligence department in the Finnish Armed Forces staff from 2019 to 2020 and is now a member of the European Parliament, analyzes the Russian war strategy and the lessons derived from the Ukrainian front for Finland.
Toveri considers the possibility of Russia applying the so-called Narva scenario. This scenario assumes a rapid Russian attack on Narva, an Estonian city inhabited mainly by Russian-speaking people. The attack would test the Allies' implementation of Article 5 of the Treaty.
After the attack, Russia might threaten to use nuclear weapons to block NATO's intervention. However, Toveri believes that NATO will see through this bluff and will be able to repel Russian forces.
Finland in a potential conflict
As noted in the book, Finland could also be drawn into an armed conflict. He points out that currently, along the Finnish eastern border, Russia does not have sufficient forces to attack the Finns. Restoring the former numbers of troops and equipment after the end of the war in Ukraine could take Russia about 3 to 5 years, but in terms of "qualitative progress" in the army, it could even take around a decade.
Toveri's book, approximately 400 pages long, is the first Finnish publication regarding the war in Ukraine. However, the book does not have the character of a research work or a historical-military analysis thoroughly supported by sources. Still, it is a form of journalism - as evaluated in "Helsingin Sanomat."
